Event: UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Date/Location: Saturday, April 18, 5:00 PM ET / Winnipeg, MB
Welcome to BudsAlley.com’s “Sharp MMA Picks” report, where we cut through the noise to identify the real value on the upcoming UFC Fight Night card. Our focus is always on uncovering opportunities where the public sentiment may be creating inflated or undervalued lines, allowing us to pinpoint the sharpest plays through diligent line shopping across FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetOnline.
Main Event Breakdown
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (170 lbs Welterweight)
Gilbert Burns: FanDuel (+235), DraftKings (+220), BetOnline (+235)
Mike Malott: FanDuel (-300), DraftKings (-270), BetOnline (-275)
The main event sees a bona fide UFC veteran in Gilbert Burns take on the surging Canadian Mike Malott. Malott is a significant favorite, especially on FanDuel at -300, which suggests strong public backing, likely fueled by his impressive finish rate and the home-country advantage in Winnipeg. However, Gilbert Burns, despite recent setbacks and being past his absolute prime, is still a very high-level welterweight with dangerous grappling and solid striking. The market has leaned heavily into Malott, presenting Gilbert Burns as a substantial underdog. For a fighter of Burns’ caliber and experience, a line of +235 (available on both FanDuel and BetOnline) offers immense value. This is a classic “sharp” fade of an overvalued favorite against a battle-tested veteran who still has the tools to win. We’re looking for the upset here.
Sharp Pick: Gilbert Burns to Win at +235 (FanDuel or BetOnline)
Featured Bouts & Value Plays
Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (135 lbs Bantamweight)
Kyler Phillips: FanDuel (+120), DraftKings (+114), BetOnline (+115)
Charles Jourdain: FanDuel (-148), DraftKings (-135), BetOnline (-135)
This bantamweight clash is tightly contested by the books. Charles Jourdain opens as a slight favorite, but the margins are slim. Kyler Phillips has shown a well-rounded game with dynamic striking and solid wrestling. Given the narrow odds, there’s not a huge disparity between the books, but Phillips at +120 on FanDuel offers the best underdog value. Jourdain often gets into wars, which can be unpredictable. Phillips’ control and diverse attack could pose problems. If you’re leaning Phillips, FanDuel is your best bet.
Value Pick: Kyler Phillips to Win at +120 (FanDuel)
Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (155 lbs Lightweight)
Mandel Nallo: FanDuel (-172), DraftKings (-175), BetOnline (-160)
Jai Herbert: FanDuel (+140), DraftKings (+145), BetOnline (+140)
Mandel Nallo is pegged as the favorite here, but not overwhelmingly so. Jai Herbert, while inconsistent, always carries knockout power. BetOnline offers the best line on Nallo at -160, making it the most attractive spot for those backing the favorite. However, the underdog line for Herbert also presents opportunity. DraftKings has Herbert at +145, which is the best price if you believe he can land that fight-ending shot. This fight screams “unpredictable finish.” We’ll lean into the dog for potential sharp value.
Sharp Pick: Jai Herbert to Win at +145 (DraftKings)
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva (125 lbs Flyweight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius: FanDuel (-320), DraftKings (-298), BetOnline (-300)
Karine Silva: FanDuel (+245), DraftKings (+240), BetOnline (+250)
Jasmine Jasudavicius is a heavy favorite in this flyweight bout. Her grappling and control-oriented style often makes her a tough out. Karine Silva is a submission threat but can be defensively porous. The public is clearly on Jasudavicius, driving her line up. However, the true sharp play often lies with the underdog in such situations, especially when they possess a fight-ending skill like Silva’s submissions. At +250 on BetOnline, Karine Silva offers a significant payout for a fighter capable of pulling off a finish if Jasudavicius makes a mistake. This is a high-risk, high-reward sharp play.
Sharp Pick: Karine Silva to Win at +250 (BetOnline)
Thiago Moisés vs. Gauge Young (155 lbs Lightweight)
Thiago Moisés: FanDuel (+122), DraftKings (+140), BetOnline (+135)
Gauge Young: FanDuel (-150), DraftKings (-166), BetOnline (-155)
Gauge Young is the slight favorite across the board, but the odds for Thiago Moisés are highly appealing, especially on DraftKings at +140. Moisés is an experienced lightweight with solid jiu-jitsu and improved striking. Young is a strong prospect, but Moisés represents a significant step up in competition. The gap between FanDuel’s +122 and DraftKings’ +140 for Moisés highlights the importance of line shopping. This is a clear value spot for the experienced underdog.
Sharp Pick: Thiago Moisés to Win at +140 (DraftKings)
Underdog Opportunities & Line Shopping Alerts
Dennis Buzukja vs. Márcio Barbosa (145 lbs Featherweight)
Dennis Buzukja: FanDuel (+390), DraftKings (+350), BetOnline (+350)
Márcio Barbosa: FanDuel (-550), DraftKings (-455), BetOnline (-450)
Márcio Barbosa is the heaviest favorite on the card, indicating extreme public confidence. While Barbosa is a solid fighter, lines like -550 are almost unbettable from a value perspective. This creates a massive underdog opportunity for Dennis Buzukja. If Buzukja can pull off the upset, the payout is enormous. FanDuel offers the absolute best value for Buzukja at +390. This is a long shot, but sharp bettors are always looking for situations where a fighter is *too* big of an underdog.
Long Shot Value: Dennis Buzukja to Win at +390 (FanDuel)
Robert Valentin vs. Julien Leblanc (185 lbs Middleweight)
Robert Valentin: FanDuel (-160), DraftKings (-162), BetOnline (-170)
Julien Leblanc: FanDuel (+130), DraftKings (+136), BetOnline (+145)
Robert Valentin is the favorite here, with BetOnline having the tightest line on him. However, the best value for underdog Julien Leblanc can be found on BetOnline at +145. These local matchups can often be volatile, and a +145 price on an underdog in a close fight is certainly worth considering for the sharp play.
Value Pick: Julien Leblanc to Win at +145 (BetOnline)
Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (265 lbs Heavyweight)
Tanner Boser: FanDuel (+134), DraftKings (+124), BetOnline (+125)
Gokhan Saricam: FanDuel (-164), DraftKings (-148), BetOnline (-145)
Heavyweight fights are notoriously unpredictable, and this one is no different. Gokhan Saricam is the slight favorite, but Tanner Boser offers compelling underdog odds. FanDuel provides the highest return on Boser at +134. Given the nature of heavyweight matchups, any underdog at these odds carries significant value if you believe they can land a shot or grind out a decision.
Sharp Pick: Tanner Boser to Win at +134 (FanDuel)
Melissa Croden vs. Darya Zheleznyakova (135 lbs Bantamweight)
Melissa Croden: FanDuel (N/A), DraftKings (-130), BetOnline (-138)
Darya Zheleznyakova: FanDuel (N/A), DraftKings (+110), BetOnline (+118)
With FanDuel odds currently unavailable, we look to DraftKings and BetOnline for this bantamweight clash. Melissa Croden is a slight favorite. However, the best value for Darya Zheleznyakova as the underdog comes from BetOnline at +118. In such a tight fight, the plus-money on either side is attractive, but +118 for Zheleznyakova is the sharpest look here if you’re taking the dog.
Value Pick: Darya Zheleznyakova to Win at +118 (BetOnline)
JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (125 lbs Flyweight)
JJ Aldrich: FanDuel (+124), DraftKings (+124), BetOnline (+125)
Jamey-Lyn Horth: FanDuel (-152), DraftKings (-148), BetOnline (-145)
Jamey-Lyn Horth is the favorite in this flyweight contest, but not by a wide margin. JJ Aldrich, a durable and experienced fighter, is available at +124 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and a slightly better +125 on BetOnline. When a fighter with Aldrich’s experience is available at plus money, it’s always worth a look. BetOnline has the marginal edge here for the sharp bettor.
Value Pick: JJ Aldrich to Win at +125 (BetOnline)
John Castañeda vs. Mark Vologdin (139 lbs Catchweight)
John Castañeda: FanDuel (-132), DraftKings (-125), BetOnline (-125)
Mark Vologdin: FanDuel (+112), DraftKings (+105), BetOnline (+105)
This catchweight bout is one of the closest on the card. John Castañeda is a slight favorite, with DraftKings and BetOnline offering the best lines on him at -125. However, for Mark Vologdin as the underdog, FanDuel offers the strongest value at +112. In a pick’em fight like this, getting plus money on either side is a good spot, but FanDuel’s line for Vologdin provides the best return if you’re leaning his way.
Value Pick: Mark Vologdin to Win at +112 (FanDuel)
Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis (135 lbs Bantamweight)
Jamie Siraj: FanDuel (-260), DraftKings (-265), BetOnline (-256)
John Yannis: FanDuel (+215), DraftKings (+215), BetOnline (+216)
Jamie Siraj is a considerable favorite in this bantamweight fight. While Siraj is expected to win, the best value on him is found at BetOnline with -256. For John Yannis, the underdog, BetOnline also provides a slight edge at +216 over FanDuel and DraftKings. If you’re looking for a long shot play, Yannis at +216 is the best line available.
Value Pick: John Yannis to Win at +216 (BetOnline)
That wraps up our “Sharp MMA Picks” for UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott. Remember to always line shop to maximize your returns, and bet responsibly. Good luck!