Analysis
Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans: The Pelicans are favored by 6 points with a total of 237, but this matchup screams danger for New Orleans backers. The Pelicans have been an absolute disaster to start this season, sitting at 0-4 both straight-up and against the spread over their last 10 games, with a -100% ATS return on investment and a -100% moneyline ROI.
At home specifically, New Orleans is 0-2 ATS with identical negative returns, meaning the Smoothie King Center has offered no sanctuary. The Kings arrive in New Orleans having lost their last four games straight-up as well, posting a 0-4 record and an equally grim -53.81% ATS ROI over their current sample. Sacramento is 0-2 both at home and on the road in this early-season stretch.
While both teams are struggling mightily, laying 6 points with the Pelicans feels like a trap play given New Orleans’ complete inability to cover at home, even against a Kings squad that’s equally inept. The over/under sits at 237, and both teams have been leaning slightly over with the Pelicans posting a 3-1 O/U record. Tipoff is Thursday at 8:10 PM ET.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks: This Eastern Conference matchup sees the Hawks as slight 1-point home favorites with a total of 238 at State Farm Arena on Thursday at 8:10 PM ET. The Cavaliers have been a paradox early this season—winning three of four straight-up games but failing to cover at all, posting a disastrous 0-4 ATS record with a -100% ATS ROI in this timeframe.
In their only road game tracked, Cleveland went 0-1 ATS with a -100% moneyline return, raising questions about their away-game execution despite the positive win-loss record. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 2-3 straight-up over their first five games but has also struggled against the spread, sitting at 2-3 ATS with a -24.43% ATS ROI. The Hawks have been particularly problematic at home, going 0-2 ATS at State Farm Arena with a -100% moneyline ROI despite winning the straight-up record at home 3-0.
This is a classic spot where both teams are winning games but leaving money on the table for bettors—the spread’s slim 1-point margin may reflect public confusion about which direction this toss-up will break. The total of 238 has seen Atlanta post a 4-1 over/under record, suggesting pace and offensive efficiency could push this toward the over.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers: The Trail Blazers are 7.5-point home favorites with a total of 234, and their early-season form has been genuinely impressive. Portland is 3-0 straight-up with a stellar 92.22% ATS ROI over their first three games this season, including a perfect 1-0 home record at Moda Center with an 87.72% ATS ROI. In away games, the Blazers have gone 2-0 ATS with a 94.47% ATS ROI, suggesting this isn’t a home-cooking story—they’re simply executing well everywhere.
The Grizzlies, by contrast, have been erratic. Memphis is 4-0 straight-up this season with a respectable 41.79% ATS ROI overall, but the underlying records tell a different story: they’re only 1-0 ATS at home (with an 89.29% ROI in that single game) but a worrying 2-1 ATS on the road with a 25.96% ATS ROI. The 7.5-point spread is sizable, and Portland’s defensive efficiency combined with their consistent cover rate suggests the Blazers have legitimate reasons to be favored this heavily.
Memphis has gone 0-3 over/under on the road but 0-1 at home, pointing toward lower-scoring contests. Tipoff is Thursday at 10:10 PM ET at the Moda Center, and this feels like a spot where Portland’s proven ATS edge at home could prove decisive against a Grizzlies team still searching for consistency away from Memphis.