Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders: The Eagles are 3.5-point underdogs in this NFC East divisional matchup at Northwest Stadium on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET, with a 40.5-point total. Philadelphia’s season-long trends tell a cautionary tale: the Eagles are just 1-5 against the spread this season with a -67.46% ATS return on investment, and they’re 2-4 straight up overall.
On the road specifically, the Eagles have posted a 1-2 ATS record with a -34.92% ROI. Washington, meanwhile, is -3.5 as the home favorite and carries a -68.18% ATS ROI on the season (1-5 ATS), though the Commanders have managed a 1-2 ATS record at home.
Both teams are limping into this divisional rivalry, and the under appears more enticing given the low 40.5-point total and the Commanders’ 4-2 over/under record against recent performance, contrasted with the Eagles’ 3-3 mark. The moneyline favors Washington at -200 versus Philadelphia’s +168.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos: The Chiefs are favored by just 1.5 points on the road against Denver at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET, with a 42.5-point total. Kansas City enters as the away team with a spectacular 51.15% ATS ROI this season (4-1 ATS) and a perfect 5-0 straight-up record, though they’ve gone 2-0 ATS in away games specifically with a +88.93% ROI. Denver is +1.5 as the home underdog, and the Broncos have been exceptional at home with a 3-0 ATS record and a +92.62% ATS ROI—one of the most profitable home records on the slate.
However, Denver’s overall season record sits at 4-2 ATS with a +28.85% ROI, while the team is 4-2 straight up. The total leans to the under, given Kansas City’s 2-3 over/under record and Denver’s 1-5 mark against the number. This divisional AFC West clash pits two profitable teams in completely opposite contexts—the hot-handed Chiefs versus an elite home team in the Broncos.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: The Patriots are significant 8.5-point favorites over Miami at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET, with a 43.5-point total. New England’s away record is a glaring concern: the Patriots are 0-4 ATS on the road this season with a -100% ATS ROI and a 1-3 straight-up mark in away contests. Miami, the home underdog at +8.5, presents one of the most troubling trends on the entire slate—the Dolphins are winless at 0-5 straight up this season with an ATS record of 0-5 and a -100% ATS ROI overall. At home, Miami is 0-2 ATS with a -100% ROI.
The moneyline is heavily skewed toward New England at -460 versus Miami’s +360, reflecting the massive confidence in the Patriots despite their road struggles. This divisional AFC East matchup features two teams that have hemorrhaged value against the spread, though the Dolphins’ complete inability to cover at home—combined with New England’s road woes—creates a minefield for spread bettors. The under at 43.5 points may be the safer play given both teams’ inability to perform.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Los Angeles Rams: The Chargers are 7-point road underdogs against the Rams at SoFi Stadium on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET, with a 45.5-point total. Los Angeles (away) enters with a catastrophic 0-6 ATS record and a -100% ATS ROI on the season, posting a 0-6 straight-up record as well. The Chargers are 0-3 ATS on the road with a -100% ROI and an identical 0-3 straight-up mark away from home.
Los Angeles (home) is -7 as the favorite but hardly inspires confidence: the Rams carry a -36.30% ATS ROI this season (2-4 ATS) with a 2-4 straight-up record. At home, the Rams are just 1-3 ATS with a -51.19% ROI and a 1-3 straight-up record. The moneyline heavily favors LA at -335 versus the Chargers’ +270. The Chargers are the worst team on this entire slate by record, making them nearly unplayable despite being underdog value.
The Rams, while not profitable themselves, at least have a home-field edge. The over at 45.5 points presents some intrigue given the Chargers’ 1-5 over/under record and the Rams’ 3-3 mark, but neither team’s offensive output has been remotely reliable.
Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys: The Cardinals are 6.5-point road underdogs against the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET, with a 51.5-point total—the highest on the slate. Arizona enters with a -68.18% ATS ROI this season (1-5 ATS) and a 2-4 straight-up record, though away from home the Cardinals have been marginally better at 1-3 ATS with a -52.27% ROI and an identical 2-2 straight-up record in away games.
Dallas is -6.5 as the home favorite and carries a -21.82% ATS ROI (2-3 ATS) with a 2-3 straight-up mark overall. At home, the Cowboys are 1-1 ATS with a -4.55% ROI and a 1-1 straight-up record. The high 51.5-point total suggests offensive potential, and Dallas has performed well to the over at 4-1, while Arizona sits at 3-3 against the number. The Cowboys’ moneyline sits at -310 versus Arizona’s +250. Both teams are mediocre and unprofitable against the spread, making this one of the week’s more uncertain matchups despite Dallas’s home field advantage.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Falcons are slight 1.5-point road favorites against the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET, with a 45.5-point total in this NFC South divisional matchup. Atlanta’s away record is stellar: the Falcons are 2-1 ATS on the road this season with a +27.27% ROI and a 2-1 straight-up mark in road games. Overall, Atlanta is 2-4 ATS with a -36.36% ROI and a 2-4 straight-up record.
Tampa Bay is -1.5 as the home underdog and presents one of the season’s most concerning trends—the Buccaneers are 0-5 straight up with a -100% ATS ROI this season, and at home they are an abysmal 0-4 ATS with a -100% ROI and an identical 0-4 straight-up record.
The moneyline favors Atlanta at +100 (even money) versus Tampa Bay’s -118. This is a potential fade of the Buccaneers at home, as they cannot cover or win outright despite playing at their home stadium. The over at 45.5 points sits intriguingly balanced, given Tampa Bay’s 3-2 over/under record and Atlanta’s 4-2 mark. The Falcons’ road success combined with Tampa Bay’s home futility makes Atlanta the obvious side in this division game.