Analysis
Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury: The Toronto Tempo venture into Phoenix as significant underdogs with an 8.50-point spread against the Mercury in what shapes up as a matchup between two struggling teams. The total is set at 177.50, suggesting a moderate-paced affair. Toronto’s overall trends over the last ten games paint a dire picture: they’re just 1-9 straight up with a 3-7 ATS record and a concerning -77.00% ML ROI.
More troubling is their road performance, where they’ve posted a perfect 0-7 straight-up record and 0-7 ATS record with a -100.00% ML ROI. Their only bright spot comes at home, where they’ve managed a 1-2 straight-up record with a 3-0 ATS record and impressive 87.54% ATS ROI, but that provides little comfort in Phoenix.
The Mercury themselves are scuffling at home, where they’re winless over their last ten contests at 0-5 straight up with a 1-4 ATS record and -100.00% ML ROI. Phoenix’s broader trends show a 2-8 straight-up record overall with a 4-6 ATS mark and -24.36% ATS ROI.
The only encouraging element for Phoenix is their over-under record sits at 6-4, suggesting their games trend toward higher scores. While the 8.50-point spread favors the home team, both squads are underperforming their respective environments, making this a contrarian opportunity worth monitoring.
Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty: The Chicago Sky arrive at New York as 8.50-point underdogs in what represents a significant line against a Liberty team that’s shown inconsistency despite their stronger recent record. The total sits at 179.50 for a fairly high-scoring expectation.
Chicago enters this contest with a solid overall 4-6 straight-up record and an impressive 6-4 ATS record over the last ten games, posting a 14.83% ATS ROI. However, their road splits tell a different story—they’re just 1-3 straight up away from home with a 2-2 ATS record and concerning -56.48% ML ROI.
The Sky’s home trends are considerably more robust at 3-3 straight up with a 4-2 ATS record and 26.31% ATS ROI, suggesting they play significantly better at their own arena. New York’s Liberty, despite their superior 7-3 straight-up record, have struggled against the spread at 5-5 ATS with a -3.20% ATS ROI overall. At home, the Liberty are 5-1 straight up but only 3-3 ATS with a -3.82% ATS ROI, indicating they’re favored heavily but not covering consistently.
New York’s over-under has leaned under at 4-6 on the season, while Chicago sits at 3-7 on O/U as well. The Liberty’s slight struggles to cover despite their strong win record, combined with Chicago’s ATS profitability overall, suggests the 8.50-point spread might overvalue New York slightly, even as the underdog Sky face a challenging road environment.