Analysis
Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces: The Dream travel to Las Vegas as 3.5-point underdogs with a total set at 178.0, and this matchup presents a fascinating contrasts in recent form. Atlanta has been exceptional on the road over their last 10 games, posting a 4-0 ATS record with an impressive 92.19% ATS ROI, though their overall ATS mark sits at 5-5 with a -4.03% ROI. The Aces, meanwhile, have been among the league’s most reliable bets at home, going 4-1 ATS with a 52.80% ATS ROI in home contests over the same stretch, contributing to their overall 7-3 ATS record and 34.54% ATS ROI across all games.
Las Vegas’s home dominance is particularly notable—they’ve covered the spread consistently at home while maintaining a respectable 6-4 moneyline record. Atlanta’s road success is undeniable, but they’ll face a Aces team that has proven difficult to beat on their own floor.
The 3.5-point spread reflects Las Vegas’s home-court advantage, and given the Aces’ superior ATS performance this season, this line appears fairly priced for a home team that has demonstrated both moneyline wins (4-1 at home) and reliable covering tendencies.
New York Liberty vs Chicago Sky: The Liberty come to Chicago as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 181.0, and this game pits a far more successful road team against a struggling squad. New York’s overall ATS record stands at 5-5 with a -3.64% ROI, though their road ATS shows promise at 3-2 with a 16.36% ROI.
The problem for New York backers is that while the Liberty have gone 5-0 at home (an impressive moneyline mark), they’ve surrendered value in those home games with a -23.64% ATS ROI, suggesting they’re consistently failing to cover as favorites.
Chicago, conversely, has been a disaster on the road, posting a 1-4 ATS record with a catastrophic -60.95% ATS ROI in away contests, while their moneyline sits at just 1-4. At home, the Sky show modest improvement at 3-2 ATS with an 11.73% ROI, yet their overall season record remains deeply negative at 4-6 ATS with a -24.61% ROI.
Liberty are the clear class here, but bettors should note that taking New York as a 3.5-point favorite has not been profitable this season based on their home ATS struggles, and Chicago’s inability to cover on the road suggests the Sky will face an uphill climb.
Los Angeles Sparks vs Connecticut Sun: The Sparks visit Connecticut as 1.5-point underdogs with a total set at 171.5, and this represents one of the season’s most concerning situations for Los Angeles bettors. The Sparks have been catastrophic away from home, going 1-5 ATS with a brutal -67.46% ATS ROI and 2-4 on the moneyline, while their overall season ATS record is a dismal 3-7 with a -41.86% ROI.
Los Angeles has been outright losing games at alarming rates, posting a 2-8 record to open the season. Connecticut, while not impressive overall with a 4-6 ATS record and -23.60% ROI, has shown some stability at home with a 3-1 ATS mark and a 44.26% ATS ROI in home contests. The Sun’s moneyline at home sits at 2-2, suggesting they can win games on their own floor even if they haven’t been consistent spreads beaters overall. The 1.5-point line actually favors the Sparks slightly, which is counterintuitive given Los Angeles’s road struggles and Connecticut’s home competence.
This could represent value on Connecticut if the market is overweighting the Sparks’ preseason reputation, though both teams have disappointed bettors significantly in early-season play.