Analysis
Welcome to BudsAlley.com’s in-depth WNBA betting analysis! We’re diving into today’s matchups, dissecting the spreads, totals, and crucial ‘Buds Trends Last 10’ data to give you the edge.
New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces (-3.5, O/U 178.5)
The Las Vegas Aces are favored by -3.5 points at home against the New York Liberty, with a projected total of 178.5 points. Looking at the trends, the Aces have been a strong bet Against The Spread (ATS) recently, boasting an impressive 7-3 overall ATS record and a substantial 31.87% ATS ROI over their last 10 games. At home, they maintain a positive 3-2 ATS record with a 13.75% ATS ROI. Their overall Money Line (ML) record stands at 6-4 (matching their 6-4 Straight Up record) with a -24.32% ML ROI.
Conversely, the New York Liberty show an average 5-5 overall ATS record and a -4.94% ATS ROI. On the road, their ATS record is 3-3 with a -5.20% ATS ROI, while their overall ML record is 5-5 (matching their 5-5 SU record) with a -21.01% ML ROI. The Aces’ solid ATS performance, particularly at home, suggests they are capable of covering this -3.5 spread against a Liberty team that has been inconsistent ATS.
Regarding the total, both teams have shown a strong tendency for high-scoring games. The Liberty have hit the Over in 8 of their last 10 games overall (8-2 OU record) and 5 of 6 on the road (5-1 OU record). The Aces also lean towards the Over with a 7-3 overall OU record and a 4-1 OU record in away games (home OU is 3-2). This suggests the 178.5 total aligns with both teams’ recent scoring tendencies, potentially favoring the Over.
Connecticut Sun at Chicago Sky (-3.5, O/U 171.5)
The Chicago Sky are favored by -3.5 points at home, with the total set at 171.5. The Sky exhibit a stark home-road split in their ATS performance. At home, they are an excellent bet with a 3-1 ATS record and a 45.06% ATS ROI. However, their overall ATS record is 4-6 with a -23.28% ATS ROI, heavily impacted by a dismal 1-5 away ATS record. Their overall ML record is 4-6 (matching their 4-6 SU record) with a -27.26% ML ROI.
The Connecticut Sun, meanwhile, have struggled ATS on the road, holding a 1-4 away ATS record with a very poor -62.61% ATS ROI. Overall, their ATS record is 5-5 with a -4.90% ATS ROI. Their overall ML record is 4-6 (matching their 4-6 SU record) with a 29.14% ML ROI, notably positive despite a losing record due to favorable odds in wins. Given Chicago’s strong home ATS trends and Connecticut’s struggles on the road, the Sky covering the -3.5 spread appears plausible.
For the total, both teams show a propensity for high-scoring affairs. The Sky have gone Over in 8 of their last 10 games overall (8-2 OU record) and 3 of 4 at home (3-1 OU record). The Sun have also leaned Over, with a 6-4 overall OU record and 4-1 OU record in away games. The 171.5 total seems appropriately set, with a slight tilt towards the Over based on recent trends for both sides.
Minnesota Lynx at Toronto Tempo (+11.5, O/U 185.5)
The Minnesota Lynx enter as significant -11.5 point road favorites against the Toronto Tempo, with a high total of 185.5. The Lynx’s ATS performance is dichotomous; while their overall ATS record is 4-6 with a -24.03% ATS ROI, their away ATS record is a strong 3-1 with a 43.18% ATS ROI. This suggests they are capable of covering large spreads on the road. Their overall ML record is impressive at 8-2 (matching their 8-2 SU record) with a -3.38% ML ROI.
The Toronto Tempo have struggled significantly against the spread. Their overall ATS record is 3-7 with a -42.69% ATS ROI, and at home, they hold a 3-6 ATS record with a -36.32% ATS ROI. Their overall ML record is 2-8 (matching their 2-8 SU record) with a -46.50% ML ROI. These trends strongly support the Lynx covering the large -11.5 spread, especially considering Tempo’s inability to cover even as underdogs.
The total of 185.5 is quite high, but aligns with the Lynx’s overwhelming tendency for Overs. They have an astonishing 9-1 overall OU record and a perfect 6-0 home OU record. Their away OU record is also 3-1. The Tempo’s overall OU record is 6-4, with a 5-4 home OU record. These trends indicate a strong likelihood for this game to go Over the established total.
Golden State Valkyries at Phoenix Mercury (+5.0, O/U 155.5)
The Golden State Valkyries are favored on the road by -5.0 points against the Phoenix Mercury, with a relatively low total of 155.5. The Valkyries are an exceptional ATS team, particularly away from home, where they boast a perfect 5-0 ATS record with an outstanding 91.41% ATS ROI. Overall, their ATS record is 8-2 with a 53.01% ATS ROI. Their overall ML record is also dominant at 9-1 (matching their 9-1 SU record) with a 61.69% ML ROI.
In contrast, the Phoenix Mercury have struggled ATS, with a 4-6 overall ATS record and a -24.39% ATS ROI. At home, their ATS record is 2-3 with a -23.64% ATS ROI. Their overall ML record is 5-5 (matching their 5-5 SU record) with a 20.27% ML ROI. The Valkyries’ consistent ability to cover spreads, especially on the road, makes the -5.0 spread look quite manageable for them.
Regarding the total, both teams have shown a strong propensity for Unders. The Valkyries have gone Under in 8 of their last 10 games overall (2-8 OU record) and 4 of 5 on the road (1-4 OU record). The Mercury also lean Under, with a 4-6 overall OU record and a 2-3 home OU record. The 155.5 total is low, and the combined trends for both teams suggest a strong lean towards the Under.
Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings (-1.0, O/U 181.0)
The Dallas Wings are slight home favorites at -1.0 points against the Atlanta Dream, with the total set at 181.0. The Dream have been one of the weakest teams ATS, holding a poor 2-8 overall ATS record with a significant -61.39% ATS ROI. Their away ATS record is 2-3 with a -22.77% ATS ROI. Their overall ML record is 4-6 (matching their 4-6 SU record) with a -51.89% ML ROI.
The Wings’ ATS performance is mixed; while their overall ATS record is a decent 6-4 with a 14.19% ATS ROI, this is heavily boosted by a strong 5-1 away ATS record. At home, their ATS record is a concerning 1-3 with a -52.27% ATS ROI. Their overall ML record is 7-3 (matching their 7-3 SU record) with a 3.80% ML ROI. Despite the Wings’ struggles at home ATS, the Dream’s overall inability to cover might make this -1.0 spread achievable for Dallas.
For the total, the Dream lean slightly towards the Over with a 6-4 overall OU record and a 4-1 home OU record (away OU is 2-3). The Wings have a balanced 5-5 overall OU record, with a 2-2 home OU record. The 181.0 total is moderately high, and the mixed OU trends suggest a cautious approach, though the Dream’s overall Over tendency might be the stronger factor here.