UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa – Sharp MMA Picks Report
Welcome to BudsAlley.com’s “Sharp MMA Picks” for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, live from Las Vegas this Saturday, May 16th. Our team has scoured the lines, cross-referenced fighter profiles, and dug deep into stylistic matchups to uncover where the real value lies. Forget the public hype; we’re chasing the sharp money.
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (145 lbs)
Arnold Allen (19-2, #6 Featherweight) is a truly elite striker with incredibly polished boxing, superb defensive instincts, and a knack for finding ways to win. He’s faced the division’s best and consistently shown his class, often winning by decision due to his high fight IQ and well-rounded game.
Melquizael Costa (19-6) steps in on short notice, a significant challenge given Allen’s caliber. Costa is a capable, well-rounded fighter who has impressed on the regional circuit and Contender Series, but this is a massive step up in competition against a top-10 fighter. His best path might be to try and make it ugly, but Allen’s defensive prowess makes that a tall order.
Sharp Angle: Allen is a deserved favorite, with odds at DraftKings: -198 and BetOnline: -187. While the public might see this as a straightforward pick-em, the late notice for Costa only solidifies Allen’s position. The line might feel a tad steep, but Allen’s consistency against a late replacement offers minimal downside. For sharp bettors, the value often lies in prop bets here – Allen by Decision could offer a better return if the line is favorable, as Allen rarely finishes opponents but almost always controls the fight.
Our Pick: Arnold Allen to Win
Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (145 lbs)
Doo Ho Choi (14-4-1), “The Korean Superboy,” is known for his devastating, pinpoint striking. However, his career has been plagued by long layoffs and he hasn’t secured a win in quite some time. When active, he’s a thrill to watch, but his durability and ability to handle pressure have been questioned in recent outings.
Daniel Santos (11-3) is an aggressive, powerful brawler who looks to engage. He brings relentless pressure and legitimate knockout power, but sometimes leaves himself open. He’s durable and constantly pushes the pace.
Sharp Angle: This is a classic “name value” vs. “current form” matchup. The public might be drawn to Choi’s highlight reel, but his extended inactivity and recent struggles are a major concern for sharps. Santos’s aggression and durability could be a nightmare for a fighter like Choi who needs space and time. With Santos at DraftKings: -142 and BetOnline: -138, the market is favoring the active fighter. However, for those looking for value, Choi at DraftKings: +120 and BetOnline: +118 offers an intriguing gamble if he can recapture his old form. We lean slightly towards the active, aggressive fighter in Santos to capitalize on Choi’s potential ring rust and defensive lapses.
Our Pick: Daniel Santos to Win
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Díaz (135 lbs)
Malcolm Wellmaker (9-1) is a formidable grappler with a suffocating top game and dangerous submission skills honed on the regional scene. His path to victory often involves securing takedowns and maintaining control.
Juan Díaz (8-2) is a slick, durable boxer with good footwork, but historically, his takedown defense has been exploitable. He prefers to keep fights standing where he can utilize his striking advantage.
Sharp Angle: This is a clear grappler-vs-striker affair. Wellmaker is a heavy favorite at BetOnline: -260, and for good reason. His grappling pedigree is significant. The sharp money will likely be on Wellmaker to exploit Díaz’s defensive liabilities on the ground. While Díaz at BetOnline: +220 offers tempting underdog odds for a striking upset, the stylistic matchup heavily favors Wellmaker. We’re looking for Wellmaker to secure a finish.
Our Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker to Win (likely by submission)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (215 lbs)
Modestas Bukauskas (15-6) is a former Cage Warriors Light Heavyweight Champion, a powerful striker with good range and heavy hands. He’s experienced against quality competition and knows how to dictate a fight.
Christian Edwards (8-0) is an undefeated prospect with high athletic potential and solid striking. He’s shown flashes of brilliance but is still relatively untested against the veteran savvy and power that Bukauskas brings.
Sharp Angle: This bout pits an experienced, proven commodity against a rising, undefeated talent. Bukauskas (DraftKings: -130, BetOnline: -130) has faced a higher level of competition and shown resilience. Edwards’ undefeated record might attract some public money, but Bukauskas’s power and ring generalship could expose any holes in Edwards’ developing game. Sharps will likely side with the experience and proven power of Bukauskas in what is essentially a pick’em fight, seeing value in his slightly favored status.
Our Pick: Modestas Bukauskas to Win
Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (135 lbs)
Ketlen Vieira (14-3, #7 Bantamweight) is a veteran bantamweight with a strong judo and grappling base, known for her control and ground-and-pound. She’s durable but sometimes struggles with dynamic strikers on the feet.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (7-1) is an explosive and dynamic striker, relatively new to the big stage but coming off impressive performances. She brings athleticism and aggression, looking to finish fights quickly.
Sharp Angle: Another compelling grappler-vs-striker matchup. Cavalcanti is the favored fighter at DraftKings: -155 and BetOnline: -153, reflecting her recent momentum and striking prowess. However, Vieira (DraftKings: +130, BetOnline: +133) possesses the high-level grappling and veteran experience to neutralize Cavalcanti’s striking if she can secure takedowns. The public might chase the flashy striker, but sharps will see value in Vieira’s ability to grind out a decision or find a submission against someone less proven in the grappling department at this level. This presents a classic “dog or pass” scenario, and we lean towards the veteran experience.
Our Pick: Ketlen Vieira to Win
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams (170 lbs)
Khaos Williams (14-3) is a powerful, explosive striker known for his one-punch knockout ability. He’s a fan-favorite who brings chaos with every punch. Nikolay Veretennikov (11-4) is a tough, durable fighter with a solid all-around game, often looking to outwork his opponents.
Sharp Angle: This is a very tight fight according to the books, with Williams at DraftKings: -122 and BetOnline: -122, and Veretennikov at DraftKings: +102 and BetOnline: +102. Khaos brings fight-ending power that Veretennikov might struggle to contend with for three rounds. While Veretennikov is tough, Williams only needs one clean shot. Sharps often favor the knockout artist in close lines, especially when the other fighter lacks a clear path to dominating other aspects. We’ll ride with the power.
Our Pick: Khaos Williams to Win
Andre Petroski vs. Cody Brundage (185 lbs)
Andre Petroski (10-3) is a relentless grappler with strong submission skills, constantly looking to take the fight to the mat and impose his will. Cody Brundage (8-6) is a durable fighter who can throw heavy hands but has shown vulnerability to strong wrestling and grappling.
Sharp Angle: Petroski is a significant favorite at DraftKings: -225 and BetOnline: -210. This is a classic grappler-vs-striker matchup where the grappler (Petroski) has a clear and proven path to victory. Brundage has been submitted before, and Petroski is exactly the type of fighter to exploit that. The sharp money is squarely on Petroski to dominate this fight on the ground.
Our Pick: Andre Petroski to Win (likely by submission)
Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (115 lbs)
Alice Ardelean (10-5) is a tough, aggressive striker who applies constant pressure. Polyana Viana (13-6) is a dangerous submission artist on the ground, but can sometimes be outstruck or outmaneuvered on the feet.
Sharp Angle: Ardelean is the favorite at DraftKings: -198 and BetOnline: -200, indicating confidence in her striking and ability to keep the fight standing. Viana at DraftKings: +164 and BetOnline: +170 offers tempting underdog value if she can secure a takedown. However, Ardelean’s defensive wrestling has improved, and her relentless striking could overwhelm Viana before she gets a chance to implement her ground game. We lean towards Ardelean to dictate the pace and locale of the fight.
Our Pick: Alice Ardelean to Win
Other Fights of Note:
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Timmy Cuamba vs. Benardo Sopaj (135 lbs)
Benardo Sopaj is favored at BetOnline: -155 and DraftKings: -162. Sopaj is likely the more polished or higher-upside prospect here, and the sharp money will look to capitalize on his potential.
Our Pick: Benardo Sopaj to Win
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Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (205 lbs)
Ivan Erslan is the favorite at DraftKings: -170 and BetOnline: -170. Erslan is a solid light heavyweight with good striking and has faced tough competition. Tokkos is the underdog at DraftKings: +142 and BetOnline: +145, suggesting Erslan’s experience and power will be the difference.
Our Pick: Ivan Erslan to Win
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Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (125 lbs)
This is a true pick’em fight with both fighters at DraftKings: -110 and BetOnline: -110. These matchups are often decided by slight edges in aggression or durability. Without a significant stylistic advantage, it’s a tough one to call, but sharps might look for the fighter who has shown more finishing instincts.
Our Pick: Daniel Barez to Win
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Shauna Bannon vs. Nicolle Caliari (115 lbs)
Nicolle Caliari is favored at DraftKings: -192 and BetOnline: -185. Bannon at DraftKings: +160 and BetOnline: +160 offers a significant underdog opportunity. Caliari likely brings a more well-rounded game or a power advantage that the books are confident in.
Our Pick: Nicolle Caliari to Win
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Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Díaz (135 lbs)
Wellmaker is a strong favorite at BetOnline: -260. Díaz is the underdog at BetOnline: +220. This stylistic matchup heavily favors the grappler in Wellmaker.
Our Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker to Win
Good luck with your bets this weekend, and remember to always practice responsible gambling. BudsAlley.com will be back with more sharp insights for the next fight night!