UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland – Sharp MMA Picks Report
Welcome to another edition of Sharp MMA Picks, exclusively for BudsAlley.com! This Saturday, May 9th, the UFC touches down in Newark, NJ, for UFC 328, headlined by a pivotal middleweight clash. We’ve dug deep into the lines, contrasting public perception with true betting value, and we’re ready to share where the sharp money might be headed. Remember to always line shop across our recommended books – FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetOnline – to maximize your returns.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland (185 lbs)
The main event pits the undefeated phenomenon Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev against the former middleweight champion, Sean Strickland. Chimaev (13-0 MMA) is a wrestling juggernaut with devastating power and a relentless pace, having showcased his dominance across multiple weight classes. He’s finished 12 of his 13 opponents and has looked nearly unstoppable. Strickland (28-6 MMA), known for his unorthodox, high-volume striking, iron chin, and surprisingly robust takedown defense, brings an incredible fighting spirit and an ability to push fights into deep waters.
The public money is heavily flowing towards Chimaev, making him a massive favorite. His hype train is real, and many expect him to run through Strickland with relative ease. However, Strickland’s unique style and mental fortitude make him a dangerous underdog, especially against a fighter who has sometimes shown an inclination to brawl.
Sharp Angle: While Chimaev’s talent is undeniable, these odds are astronomical. The value on Strickland is hard to ignore, especially considering his championship experience and ability to absorb punishment and return fire. If anyone can frustrate Chimaev and drag him into a grueling 25-minute affair, it’s Strickland. Don’t expect him to fold. For an outright upset, the best value on Sean Strickland can be found at DraftKings with odds of +425. If you believe Chimaev will win but struggle to find a finish, look to prop bets. For Chimaev straight, he’s at -590 on FanDuel, -575 on DraftKings, and -550 on BetOnline.
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira (125 lbs)
This flyweight contest features two exciting prospects. Tatsuro Taira (15-0 MMA) is an undefeated Japanese grappling ace with an incredible submission game and smooth transitions. Joshua Van (12-1 MMA) is a high-octane striker with a relentless forward pressure and solid durability.
Taira is widely considered one of the brightest prospects in the division, with public confidence building in his flawless record and submission prowess. Van is a tough out, but he’ll need to keep this fight standing to have a chance against Taira’s advanced ground game.
Sharp Angle: Taira is a rightful favorite, but Van’s grit and striking could present some challenges if Taira can’t get the fight to the mat early. The market sees Taira as the clear favorite, but the line on Van offers some intrigue. For those eyeing Van as a live underdog, FanDuel offers the best odds at +140. If you’re riding with the rising star, Taira’s best value is at -158 on BetOnline.
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (265 lbs)
A heavyweight clash between a seasoned veteran and an undefeated power-puncher. Alexander “Drago” Volkov (37-10 MMA) is a towering, technical striker with excellent range management and dangerous kicks, with recent improvements in his grappling defense. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (11-0 MMA) is an undefeated former professional boxer who brings heavy hands and a relentless, powerful attack, though he is still relatively new to the MMA game.
The public will likely be split, with Volkov’s experience being balanced against Cortes-Acosta’s undefeated record and knockout potential. This fight is seen as a stepping stone for Cortes-Acosta, but Volkov is a significant test.
Sharp Angle: This line is tight, and for good reason. Volkov has faced a much higher caliber of competition, and his technical striking could pick apart Cortes-Acosta’s more raw approach. However, Cortes-Acosta’s power is always a threat. Sharps might lean towards Volkov’s experience and tactical advantage. The best value on Alexander Volkov can be found at DraftKings with odds of -142. If you’re a believer in Cortes-Acosta’s power, consider his odds at +138 on FanDuel.
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley (170 lbs)
An exciting welterweight bout matching a dominant grappler against an explosive striker. Sean Brady (16-0 MMA) is an undefeated, suffocating grappler with relentless takedowns and top control, known for wearing down opponents. Joaquin Buckley (18-6 MMA) is a highlight-reel knockout artist with immense power and improving takedown defense, often looking for the spectacular finish.
The narrative here is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Public perception might gravitate towards Buckley’s exciting finishes, but Brady’s undefeated record built on pure dominance can’t be ignored.
Sharp Angle: Brady’s grappling is elite, but he’s coming off a layoff, and Buckley’s striking has never looked better. If Buckley can defend the initial takedowns, he has the power to turn the lights out. However, if Brady gets this to the ground, it could be a long night for Buckley. The best value on Sean Brady is at BetOnline with odds of -155, which is a surprisingly good price for an undefeated prospect of his caliber. For those who believe in Buckley’s power, FanDuel offers the best odds at +144.
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens (160 lbs)
A veteran’s delight at a catchweight. King Green (31-15-1 MMA) is an elusive, high-volume striker known for his defensive prowess and frustrating opponents with his movement and quick hands. Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens (29-21 MMA) is a legendary knockout artist with an all-action style, though he’s been on a tough run in recent years.
The public will likely remember Stephens’ iconic KOs, but Green’s recent activity and consistent performances make him a clear favorite. Stephens is a shell of his former self, but the “puncher’s chance” is always present.
Sharp Angle: Green is a stylistic nightmare for Stephens, who often struggles against movement and defensive fighters. While Stephens always carries power, Green’s elusiveness and volume should be enough to secure a victory. The line reflects this, with Green being a significant favorite. If you’re looking for the longshot, Stephens’ best value is at DraftKings with generous odds of +340. For parlay consideration, King Green is best found at FanDuel with odds of -385.
Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz (185 lbs)
A middleweight bout with an extreme odds disparity. Ateba Gautier is a massive favorite, indicating a significant perceived skill gap or a fighter with a very dominant record not widely known. Ozzy Diaz is a heavy underdog.
With such wide lines, the public will either jump on the heavy favorite or completely ignore the fight.
Sharp Angle: When you see lines like this, proceed with caution. The sportsbook often knows something. However, extreme underdogs *occasionally* pay off. While we lack extensive public records for these specific fighters in the provided data, the value on Ozzy Diaz is too high to ignore for a lottery ticket play. If you’re feeling adventurous and looking for a massive longshot, BetOnline offers an incredible +900 on Ozzy Diaz. Gautier is a prohibitive favorite at -1800 on BetOnline, -1400 on FanDuel, and -1100 on DraftKings.
Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov (170 lbs)
A fascinating welterweight contest. Joel Alvarez (20-4 MMA) is a dangerous finisher with 19 of his wins coming via stoppage, primarily submissions, but also with power in his striking. Yaroslav Amosov (27-1 MMA) is a dominant wrestler and grappler, known for his relentless top pressure and control.
Public perception might be split, with Alvarez’s finishes drawing attention against Amosov’s consistent, suffocating style.
Sharp Angle: Amosov’s wrestling is truly elite and often neutralizes striking threats. Alvarez is a submission threat himself, but he often needs to get the fight to his terms. Amosov is the more proven commodity against higher-level competition. Look for Amosov to control the pace and dictate where the fight takes place. The best value on Yaroslav Amosov is at FanDuel with odds of -184. For those backing Alvarez’s finishing ability, BetOnline and DraftKings offer the best value at +160.
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki (155 lbs)
A lightweight clash between two strong grapplers. Grant Dawson (20-2-1 MMA) is a high-level grappler with excellent control and submission skills, known for grinding out wins. Mateusz Rębecki (19-1 MMA) is a Polish standout, also a strong grappler with powerful striking, making a name for himself in the UFC.
This fight could be a grappling chess match, and the public will be interested to see which fighter can impose their will on the ground.
Sharp Angle: This is a classic “grappler vs. grappler” where often the striking becomes more impactful, or one grappler proves superior. Dawson has faced tougher competition in the UFC and shown his ability to adapt. Rębecki is a formidable challenge, but Dawson’s experience at this level might give him the edge. The best value on Grant Dawson is at FanDuel with odds of -180. If you’re backing the Polish powerhouse, Mateusz Rębecki, FanDuel also offers the best value at +146.
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (155 lbs)
A lightweight bout featuring two durable veterans. Jim Miller (37-18 MMA) is a UFC legend, a submission specialist with an iron will, still competing at a high level. Jared Gordon (19-6 MMA) is a gritty, high-volume striker with excellent cardio and toughness.
The public loves Jim Miller’s longevity and warrior spirit, but Gordon’s youth and relentless pace often present a challenge for older fighters.
Sharp Angle: Miller’s ability to pull off submissions is always a threat, but Gordon’s cardio and pressure could wear him down over three rounds. Gordon’s striking volume and grappling defense should allow him to control large portions of this fight. While Miller is a fan favorite, the sharp money is likely on the younger, more active Gordon to outwork the veteran. The best value on Jared Gordon is at BetOnline with odds of -290. For the long-shot play on the legend Jim Miller, DraftKings offers the best value at +250.
Stay tuned to BudsAlley.com for more sharp breakdowns and betting insights! Good luck with your picks!