Analysis
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever
The Indiana Fever are favored by -1.5 points with a total of 174.5. Looking at the trends, the Atlanta Dream, as the away team, have a 3-2 ATS record with a positive ROI of 15.41% in their last 10 games on the road. Their overall ATS record is 6-4 with a 15.84% ROI. On the other side, the Indiana Fever boast a formidable home record, going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, yielding an impressive 52.01% ATS ROI. Overall, both teams have a 6-4 ATS record. The spread of -1.5 seems to acknowledge Indiana’s strong home advantage. For the total, both teams are 5-5 overall on the over/under. Atlanta is 2-3 to the under on the road, while Indiana is 3-2 to the over at home, presenting a mixed picture for the 174.5 total.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
The Las Vegas Aces are significant favorites at -7.5 points, with the total set at 171.5. The Aces have a strong 4-2 ATS record on the road in their last 6 games, achieving a 27.34% ATS ROI, despite a more modest 5-5 overall ATS record. The Phoenix Mercury, however, have been struggling significantly, with an overall ATS record of 2-8 and a dismal -61.39% ATS ROI. Their home performance is even worse, showing an 0-3 ATS record and a -100.00% ATS ROI in their last 3 home games. The large -7.5 spread is well-supported by Phoenix’s poor performance, particularly at home, and Las Vegas’s solid road ATS record. Regarding the total, the Aces lean to the over overall (6-4), while the Mercury lean to the under overall (4-6). However, Phoenix’s last 3 home games have all gone over the total (3-0 OU), which adds an interesting wrinkle to the 171.5 total.
Seattle Storm vs. Portland Fire
The Portland Fire are favored by -3.5 points, and the total is 161.5. The Seattle Storm have been abysmal on the road, with an 0-4 ATS record and a -100.00% ATS ROI in their last 4 away games, along with an overall SU record of 2-8. The Portland Fire, while having a poor 3-7 overall ATS record, hold a 3-3 ATS record at home in their last 6 games, paired with a winning 3-3 SU home record. The spread of -3.5 for Portland is reasonable, given Seattle’s complete lack of success away from home. For the total, there’s a strong lean towards the under. Seattle is 3-7 overall on the OU and 1-3 on the road, while Portland is 4-6 overall on the OU and 2-4 at home, making the 161.5 total look potentially high.
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries
The Golden State Valkyries are -2.5 point favorites, with the total at 165.5. The Dallas Wings are an excellent betting proposition, boasting an 8-2 overall ATS record and a fantastic 51.86% ATS ROI. Their road performance is also strong, with a 4-2 ATS record and a 27.80% ATS ROI. The Golden State Valkyries have a winning 5-1 SU record at home but are only 3-3 ATS at home with a negative ROI, and a 4-6 overall ATS record with a -23.99% ROI. The -2.5 spread for Golden State seems to overlook Dallas’s consistent ATS success, especially as an away underdog. For the total, Golden State has a strong tendency to go over, with a 7-3 overall OU record and a 5-1 OU record at home. Dallas is 4-6 overall on the OU, but 3-3 on the road, suggesting a strong possibility for the 165.5 total to go over.
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks
The Minnesota Lynx are heavily favored at -9.5 points, and the total is 176.5. The Lynx are a dominant force, with a 9-1 overall SU record and an 8-2 ATS record with a superb 53.71% ATS ROI. On the road, they maintain a 3-1 SU and ATS record with a 46.54% ATS ROI. The Los Angeles Sparks have a decent 6-4 overall ATS record, but their home performance is concerning, with a 1-2 SU and ATS record and negative ROIs. The large spread of -9.5 for Minnesota is well-justified by their elite performance and the Sparks’ struggles at home. Regarding the total, both teams are 6-4 overall on the over/under. Minnesota is 2-2 on the OU on the road, while Los Angeles is 1-2 on the OU at home, providing mixed signals on the 176.5 total.
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky
The New York Liberty are significant favorites at -10.5 points, with the total set at 169.5. The Liberty are strong overall, with a 7-3 ATS record and a 33.60% ATS ROI. They are perfect on the road in their limited sample size, going 2-0 ATS with a massive 86.96% ATS ROI. The Chicago Sky, on the other hand, are struggling immensely, with a 2-8 overall ATS record and a -62.21% ATS ROI. At home, they are 1-5 ATS with a -68.84% ATS ROI. The -10.5 spread strongly reflects New York’s road dominance and Chicago’s severe home struggles. For the total, New York leans heavily to the under overall (3-7 OU), although their small sample size of 2 away games has gone over. Chicago is 5-5 overall on the OU and 3-3 at home. This suggests a potential lean towards the under for the 169.5 total based on New York’s overall trends.
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun
The Washington Mystics are favored by -2.5 points, and the total is 163.5. The Mystics have a poor 3-7 overall ATS record and an even worse 1-5 ATS record on the road, with a -68.18% ATS ROI. The Connecticut Sun have an abysmal 2-8 overall ATS record and huge negative ROIs. However, in a small sample of 3 home games, they are 2-1 ATS with a positive 28.72% ATS ROI, despite a losing SU record at home. The -2.5 spread for Washington is interesting given their struggles covering the spread on the road, contrasted with Connecticut’s surprising home ATS performance. For the total, both teams are 5-5 overall on the over/under. Washington is 3-3 on the OU on the road, while Connecticut is 1-2 on the OU at home, indicating a slight lean towards the under for the 163.5 total.