This MLB slate features a promising pitching duel between two young arms, highlighted by Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Skenes, with an impressive 6-5 record and a 2.84 ERA, will face Max Meyer (6-0, 2.85 ERA) of the Miami Marlins in what is expected to be a tight contest, evidenced by the low total of 7 runs. While the Pirates are favored at -162 on the Moneyline, their recent overall form with a -34.50% ML ROI is concerning. The Marlins, however, have shown some promise recently, with an away ML ROI of 50.84%, making this a potentially tricky game despite Skenes’ talent.
Top Picks
For our top picks, the Philadelphia Phillies (-124 ML) stand out against the Milwaukee Brewers. Cristopher Sánchez (1.54 ERA) has been phenomenal, and the Phillies boast a strong overall ML ROI of 15.86% and ATS ROI of 28.78%. The Brewers, conversely, have struggled severely at home, showing a dismal -65.38% ML ROI and -54.17% ATS ROI. This makes the Phillies a compelling Moneyline play in a game with a low total of 6.5.
Next, consider the Seattle Mariners (-142 ML) who travel to face the Washington Nationals. Emerson Hancock (2.74 ERA) offers a significant advantage over Miles Mikolas (5.90 ERA). The Nationals’ home struggles are evident with a -53.99% ML ROI and -31.25% ATS ROI, while the Mariners’ away ATS ROI of 28.56% indicates their ability to perform on the road.
Lastly, the Baltimore Orioles (-132 ML), despite a high total of 10, offer a good home ATS ROI of 42.40%. Their opponent, the Padres, have an overall ML ROI of -26.10%, suggesting the Orioles should be able to secure a win at home.
Underdog Value
Several underdogs present attractive value on this slate. The St. Louis Cardinals (-102 ML) are a strong candidate against the struggling Minnesota Twins. The Cardinals’ overall ML ROI of 31.63% and ATS ROI of 20.21% are impressive, especially compared to the Twins’ -39.29% ML ROI and -51.53% ATS ROI. Taking the Cardinals on the Moneyline or even the Runline could be a profitable venture.
The Detroit Tigers (-106 ML), with Casey Mize (2.27 ERA) providing a pitching edge over Gavin Williams (3.32 ERA), also look appealing. The Tigers’ positive overall ML ROI of 17.61% and ATS ROI of 14.97% against the Guardians’ negative ML ROI of -17.87% make them a strong upset pick.
Finally, the Chicago Cubs (+122 ML), despite facing Logan Webb, offer substantial value. The Giants’ home performance has been poor, reflected in their -61.82% ML ROI and -69.47% ATS ROI, while the Cubs’ away ATS ROI of 53.47% suggests they can surprise.
Sharp Trends
For those looking at sharp trends and high ROI plays, the New York Yankees (-126 ML) are a standout. Their road performance has been exceptional, with an away ML ROI of 52.94% and an away ATS ROI of 53.61%. Against Patrick Corbin, the Yankees are a solid Moneyline play. The Athletics (-184 ML), despite their heavy favorite status, show a remarkable home ML ROI of 38.53% and an outstanding home ATS ROI of 81.78%. These metrics suggest strong backing and make them a compelling bet on the Moneyline, and potentially the Runline at -1.5 (102).
An intriguing “sharp” pick emerges with the Los Angeles Angels (100 ML). Despite Grayson Rodriguez’s high ERA, the Angels boast an impressive home ML ROI of 40.56% and ATS ROI of 30.52%, indicating consistent overperformance as home underdogs.
Lastly, the Chicago White Sox (+164 ML) against the Dodgers present a high-risk, high-reward “sharp” play. Their home ML ROI is an astonishing 71.00% and ATS ROI is 33.11%, demonstrating a remarkable ability to cash in as significant home underdogs.