BudsAlley.com: Sharp MMA Picks – UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
The octagon heads overseas this Saturday, May 30th, for UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, kicking off bright and early at 4:00 AM ET. For the seasoned bettors and those looking to get ahead of the curve, this card presents a fascinating array of matchups where sharp money can find significant value amidst the public sentiment. We’ve scoured the lines from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetOnline to bring you the best opportunities to cash in.
Bantamweight Main Event: Yadong Song vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
This bantamweight clash pits rising star Yadong Song against former flyweight king Deiveson Figueiredo. Song (21-7-1, 1 NC; typically a dynamic striker with knockout power and improving wrestling defense) has steadily climbed the ranks, showcasing an aggressive style that consistently puts opponents on the back foot. Figueiredo (22-3-1; known for his immense power, grappling prowess, and relentless pressure, now moving up to 135 lbs) is a proven championship-level fighter, but the move up a weight class is always a question mark for fighters, especially against a natural bantamweight like Song.
The lines heavily favor Song, with Figueiredo currently sitting at a substantial underdog, fetching +380 on DraftKings and +420 on BetOnline. The public will likely jump on Song as the clear favorite, given his momentum and Figueiredo’s adjustment period at 135 lbs. However, for a fighter of Figueiredo’s caliber, with his power translating well and his grappling being a consistent threat, those odds offer significant value. The sharp angle here is to consider whether the market is overcorrecting for the weight class change. Is Figueiredo truly a 4-to-1 underdog against anyone not at the absolute elite of 135 lbs? We believe there’s a live dog here. While Song’s skill set is formidable, Figueiredo’s experience and ability to finish fights on the feet or the ground make him an intriguing play at these prices. This is where savvy bettors will consider a smaller stake on the former champion, looking for the upset.
Light Heavyweight Co-Main Event: Mingyang Zhang vs. Alonzo Menifield
In the co-main event, we have a light heavyweight slugfest between Mingyang Zhang (17-6; a powerful, aggressive striker with a high finish rate) and Alonzo Menifield (15-4-1; an explosive athlete with devastating knockout power, often looking for the early finish). Both men are known for their ability to end fights with one punch, making this a prime candidate for an early finish.
Alonzo Menifield comes into this fight as the underdog, priced at +180 on DraftKings and +190 on BetOnline. While Zhang has shown impressive finishes, Menifield’s raw power and athleticism are undeniable. The public might lean towards Zhang’s recent impressive outings, but Menifield has faced a higher caliber of competition and possesses the kind of one-shot knockout power that can instantly close the distance on any betting line. Line shopping indicates that the value lies with Menifield here. His experience against durable opponents gives him an edge that the current odds don’t fully reflect. Don’t be surprised if “Atomic” Alonzo pulls off the upset.
Heavyweight Bout: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira
Heavyweight action features the always dangerous Sergei Pavlovich (18-2; a terrifying knockout artist with some of the fastest hands in the division) against Tallison Teixeira (10-3; likely a short-notice replacement, looking to make a name for himself with a brawling style). Pavlovich is a certified contender, known for his destructive first-round finishes.
Teixeira is the massive underdog here, with odds of +380 on DraftKings and +385 on BetOnline. While Pavlovich is undoubtedly a fearsome opponent, the heavyweight division always carries inherent volatility. Teixeira, likely stepping in on short notice, might be overlooked entirely by the public. For sharp bettors, the question is always: Is there a path to victory at these long odds? While a Pavlovich finish is highly probable, for extremely low stakes, a flyer on Teixeira, hoping for a “puncher’s chance” or a stylistic anomaly, could be considered given the extremely generous payout. However, caution is advised; Pavlovich is a juggernaut for a reason.
Bantamweight Bout: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman
Japanese phenom Kai Asakura (20-4; an electrifying striker with fast hands and solid ground game, making his UFC debut after a successful career in other promotions) faces Cameron Smotherman (10-4; a well-rounded fighter with good wrestling and solid striking). Asakura is entering the UFC with significant hype.
Kai Asakura is a strong favorite at -305 on DraftKings and -300 on BetOnline. The public will heavily back Asakura, and for good reason; his talent is undeniable. However, debuts in the UFC can be tricky, and Smotherman is a gritty opponent who won’t be easily put away. The sharp play here isn’t necessarily fading Asakura, but rather evaluating if the juice is worth the squeeze. For parlays, he’s a decent leg, but as a straight bet, the value at -300 or -305 is limited unless you believe he is absolutely bulletproof. Look for potential prop bets on a decision if you think Smotherman can weather the early storm, or a specific method of victory for Asakura for better odds.
Flyweight Bout: Alex Perez vs. Su Mudaerji
This flyweight encounter promises fireworks as Alex Perez (24-8; a high-pressure wrestler with crisp striking and a high pace) takes on Su Mudaerji (18-5; a rangy, powerful striker known for his fast hands and technical striking). Both fighters are looking to make a statement in the shark tank of the flyweight division.
Alex Perez is the slight favorite at -135 on DraftKings and -140 on BetOnline, while Su Mudaerji is the underdog at +114 on DraftKings and +120 on BetOnline. This is essentially a pick ’em fight, and the sharp money will be analyzing the stylistic matchup closely. Perez’s wrestling and relentless pressure could be a problem for Mudaerji, but Mudaerji’s striking could catch Perez clean. At these odds, Mudaerji presents compelling value. The public often leans towards the more established name, but Mudaerji’s recent performances suggest he’s sharpened his game significantly. This is a prime spot for an underdog play where the value slightly outweighs the perceived risk. The +120 on BetOnline is particularly attractive.
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim
Kicking off the preliminary card, we have a strawweight bout between veteran Loma Lookboonmee (12-4; a relentless Muay Thai striker with excellent clinch work and cardio) and Jaqueline Amorim (7-1; a highly touted grappler with a dangerous submission game).
Loma Lookboonmee is the slight favorite at -125 on DraftKings and -125 on BetOnline, while Jaqueline Amorim is the slight underdog at +105 on DraftKings and +105 on BetOnline. This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Lookboonmee’s takedown defense will be key, as will Amorim’s ability to get the fight to the mat. The sharp play here focuses on the value presented by Amorim. While Lookboonmee is durable and technically sound, Amorim’s submission threat is potent, and at even money (+105), the risk-reward is favorable for a fighter who only needs one mistake from her opponent to secure a finish. Don’t be surprised if Amorim finds a way to take this to the ground and finish it.
Stay sharp, bet smart, and good luck from BudsAlley.com!