Analysis
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx (Lynx -11.5 / 168.5 Total)
The Minnesota Lynx enter this matchup as a significant favorite with a spread of -11.5. Reviewing the BudsTrendsLast10 data, the Lynx have been strong against the spread (ATS) overall, boasting a 7-3 record with a 31.83% ATS ROI. However, their home ATS record is a more neutral 2-2 with a -5.53% ROI, suggesting they don’t consistently cover large spreads at home. The Phoenix Mercury, on the other hand, have struggled significantly ATS, with an overall record of 3-7 (-43.05% ROI) and an even worse road ATS record of 1-3 (-54.17% ROI). This indicates Phoenix has difficulty staying within the number, especially away from home. While Minnesota’s home ATS performance is mixed, Phoenix’s consistent failure to cover suggests value on the Lynx covering the -11.5 spread.
For the total of 168.5, the Lynx have seen the Over hit in 6 of their last 10 games overall, and 3 of their last 4 home games, indicating a lean towards higher-scoring contests at home. Conversely, the Mercury have trended Under, with a 4-6 overall Over/Under (OU) record and a strong 1-3 OU record on the road. This presents a clash of trends. The Lynx’s home Over trend is notable, but the Mercury’s tendency for lower-scoring road games could pull the final score below the total.
In terms of straight-up (SU) performance, the Lynx hold a 7-3 record overall and 2-2 at home, with a -4.19% ML ROI. The Mercury are 4-6 SU overall but a surprising 2-2 SU on the road with a 71.25% ML ROI, indicating they’ve been profitable for moneyline bettors in unexpected road wins, though this doesn’t directly speak to covering the spread.
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Atlanta Dream (Dream -7.5 / 177.0 Total)
The Atlanta Dream are favored by -7.5 at home. The BudsTrendsLast10 data reveals the Dream have a challenging history against the spread, with an overall ATS record of 3-7 and a significant -41.58% ATS ROI. Their home ATS record is even worse at 1-4 with a -60.39% ROI, indicating they frequently fail to cover spreads in front of their home crowd. Despite this, the Dream have a positive home SU record of 3-2. The Los Angeles Sparks are 5-5 ATS overall, but 2-3 ATS on the road (-22.77% ROI). Given Atlanta’s struggles to cover large spreads, particularly at home, the Sparks +7.5 might be an appealing option, even with their own slightly negative road ATS trend.
The total for this game is set at 177.0. Both teams show a strong tendency towards the Over. The Sparks have an 8-2 overall OU record and a 4-1 OU record on the road. The Dream also lean Over with a 6-4 overall OU record and a 4-1 OU record at home. With both teams consistently going Over the total in recent games, especially in their respective home/away splits, this game points towards a high-scoring affair.
Looking at straight-up performance, the Dream are 4-6 overall but 3-2 at home, with a -25.60% ML ROI at home, suggesting they win some games but don’t always do so dominantly. The Sparks are 5-5 overall and 2-3 on the road, with a -36.67% ML ROI away.
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces (Aces -4.0 / 181.5 Total)
The Las Vegas Aces are favored by -4.0 at home. According to BudsTrendsLast10, the Aces are strong ATS overall (7-3, 32.52% ROI) and have a solid home ATS record (4-2, 26.68% ROI). This suggests they are generally good at covering spreads. However, the Indiana Fever also demonstrate strong ATS performance, with an overall record of 6-4 (15.41% ROI) and a 3-2 ATS record on the road (15.41% ROI). This game features two teams that have consistently covered the spread recently. The Aces’ home dominance combined with the Fever’s ability to cover on the road makes this spread intriguing, indicating the Fever often play tougher than expected.
The total is 181.5. The Fever have a strong tendency to go Over, with a 7-3 overall OU record and a 3-2 OU record on the road. In contrast, the Aces lean Under, with a 4-6 overall OU record and a 2-4 OU record at home. This creates a significant conflict in Over/Under trends. The Fever’s high-scoring tendencies will be tested against the Aces’ defense and their own home Under trend.
Straight-up, the Aces are a dominant 7-3 overall and 4-2 at home, though with a slight negative ML ROI. The Fever are 6-4 overall and 3-2 on the road, showing respectable SU performance and a positive 5.65% ML ROI away.
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings (Wings -9.5 / 178.5 Total)
The Dallas Wings are favored by -9.5 at home. The BudsTrendsLast10 data shows the Wings have a good overall ATS record of 6-4 (14.23% ROI). However, their home ATS record is a concerning 1-2 with a -37.68% ROI, indicating some inconsistency covering spreads at home. The Chicago Sky have struggled significantly against the spread, with an overall ATS record of 4-6 (-23.99% ROI) and a particularly poor road ATS record of 1-5 (-68.84% ROI). The Sky’s inability to cover on the road is a major factor. Despite Dallas’s mixed home ATS, the Sky’s profound struggles away from home suggest the Wings have a strong opportunity to cover the -9.5 spread.
The total for this game is 178.5. The Sky have a strong tendency towards the Over, with an 8-2 overall OU record and a 4-2 OU record on the road. The Wings are evenly split on the Over/Under overall (5-5) and have a slight lean to the Under at home (1-2 OU). The Sky’s consistent high-scoring games, even on the road, suggests this game could trend Over despite the Wings’ more balanced OU record.
In terms of SU performance, the Wings are 7-3 overall and 2-1 at home with a 20.00% ML ROI at home. The Sky are 3-7 overall and a dismal 1-5 on the road with a -59.17% ML ROI, reinforcing their struggles.
Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics (Mystics -5.5 / 162.5 Total)
The Washington Mystics are favored by -5.5 at home. The BudsTrendsLast10 data indicates the Mystics have a very poor overall ATS record of 3-7 (-43.08% ROI) and a home ATS record of 2-3 (-23.56% ROI), showing they frequently fail to cover spreads. While they win games (6-4 SU overall, 3-2 SU home), their moneyline ROI is very high (127.97% overall, 42.94% home), suggesting they win outright as underdogs or in close contests, but not necessarily by large margins. The Seattle Storm are 5-5 ATS overall, but have a poor road ATS record of 1-4 (-62.61% ROI). Despite Seattle’s road ATS struggles, the Mystics’ consistent failure to cover, even when winning, might make the Storm +5.5 an interesting play.
The total for this game is 162.5. The Mystics have a strong tendency towards the Under, with an overall OU record of 3-7 and a 1-4 OU record at home. The Storm are even on the Over/Under overall (5-5) and slightly lean Under on the road (2-3 OU). The strong Under trend from the Mystics, especially at home, suggests this game will be lower-scoring.
Straight-up, the Mystics are 6-4 overall and 3-2 at home. The Storm are 3-7 overall and 1-4 on the road, indicating they are significant underdogs in this contest.
New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo (Liberty -7.0 / 177.5 Total)
The New York Liberty are favored by -7.0 on the road. The BudsTrendsLast10 data shows the Liberty are 5-5 ATS overall and 3-3 ATS on the road, indicating they are a fairly neutral ATS team. The Toronto Tempo, however, are struggling significantly across all metrics, with an overall ATS record of 3-7 (-43.12% ROI) and a home ATS record of 2-4 (-37.02% ROI). Their straight-up performance is also poor, at 2-8 overall and 1-5 at home with a -66.67% ML ROI. Given Tempo’s widespread struggles and inability to cover at home, the Liberty at -7.0 presents a strong case, despite New York’s neutral ATS trends.
For the total of 177.5, the Liberty have a strong tendency towards the Over, with a 7-3 overall OU record and a 4-2 OU record on the road. The Tempo also lean Over overall (6-4) and are even at home (3-3 OU). Both teams’ Over tendencies, particularly New York’s, suggest a high-scoring game.
Straight-up, the Liberty are 4-6 overall and 2-4 on the road with a -45.30% ML ROI away. The Tempo’s 2-8 overall and 1-5 home SU record underlines their status as heavy underdogs.