Analysis
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Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
Spread: Las Vegas Aces -10.50 | Total: 173.50
The Las Vegas Aces enter this game as significant favorites with a -10.50 spread. Looking at their recent performance, the Aces boast a strong 6-4 ATS (Against The Spread) record overall and a profitable 14.62% ATS ROI when playing at home (3-2 ATS home record). Conversely, the Phoenix Mercury have struggled against the spread, with an overall ATS record of 3-7 and a particularly poor 1-3 ATS record on the road. This trend strongly favors the Aces to cover the large spread.
Regarding the total of 173.50, both teams have leaned towards lower-scoring games, with both the Mercury and Aces holding a 4-6 OU (Over/Under) record overall. The Mercury’s away OU is 1-3, and the Aces’ home OU is 2-3, suggesting a tendency for games to stay Under the projected total.
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Portland Fire vs. Atlanta Dream
Spread: Atlanta Dream -11.50 | Total: 172.50
The Atlanta Dream are set as heavy -11.50 favorites against the Portland Fire. While both teams have an identical 4-6 overall ATS record, the Fire’s performance on the road against the spread has been dismal at 1-5 ATS, with a substantial -67.46% ATS ROI. The Dream, despite their overall 4-6 ATS, have a 1-3 ATS record at home, which is less convincing for covering such a large spread. However, the Fire’s poor road ATS might still make the Dream an attractive pick.
For the total of 172.50, the historical data strongly points towards the Over. Both the Fire and Dream have a 6-4 OU record overall. The Fire’s away games have gone Over 4 times in 6 outings (4-2 OU), and the Dream’s home games have gone Over 3 times in 4 outings (3-1 OU). This robust trend suggests a high-scoring affair.
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New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
Spread: Minnesota Lynx -3.50 | Total: 172.50
This matchup sees the Minnesota Lynx as 3.50-point favorites. Interestingly, both the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx share identical overall ATS records of 6-4. However, when breaking it down by venue, the Liberty have a solid 3-2 ATS record on the road, while the Lynx have struggled to cover at home, holding a 1-2 ATS record with a negative -36.36% ATS ROI. This suggests the Liberty, as the underdog, might be a strong play to cover the spread.
The total is set at 172.50, and again, both teams show a clear preference for the Over, each with a 6-4 OU record overall. The Liberty’s away OU is 3-2, and the Lynx’s home OU is 2-1. These consistent Over trends indicate a high likelihood of the game surpassing the projected total.
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Chicago Sky vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks -1.00 | Total: 176.50
The Los Angeles Sparks are slight -1.00 favorites against the Chicago Sky in what is expected to be a close contest. Both teams possess a 5-5 overall ATS record. However, the Sky’s road ATS performance is concerning at 1-4, indicating they often fail to cover on the road. The Sparks, conversely, have a favorable 3-2 ATS record at home with a positive 13.31% ATS ROI. This makes the Sparks a compelling choice to cover the minimal spread.
The total is positioned at 176.50, and both franchises have demonstrated a strong tendency for high-scoring games, with both the Sky and Sparks holding a 7-3 OU record overall. Their respective away (Sky 3-2 OU) and home (Sparks 3-2 OU) records further reinforce the expectation of the game going Over the total.
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Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun
Spread: Golden State Valkyries -6.50 | Total: 154.50
The Golden State Valkyries are laying -6.50 points against the Connecticut Sun. The Valkyries have been exceptional against the spread, boasting an outstanding 8-2 ATS record overall and a solid 3-1 ATS record on the road, alongside an impressive 44.42% overall ML ROI. While the Sun have a decent 5-3 ATS record at home, their overall SU record of 3-7 and particularly poor home SU record of 2-6 suggest they often lose games. Given Golden State’s dominant ATS performance, they are a strong candidate to cover the spread.
The total is set at 154.50. This game presents a clear trend towards the Under, primarily driven by the Valkyries’ remarkable 2-8 overall OU record and 1-3 away OU record. The Sun’s overall OU is 6-4, but their home OU is 4-4, which isn’t strong enough to offset Golden State’s strong Under tendency. This matchup appears primed for an Under result.
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Dallas Wings vs. Toronto Tempo
Spread: Dallas Wings -7.50 | Total: 178.00
The Dallas Wings are favored by -7.50 points against the Toronto Tempo. Dallas has a strong track record against the spread, with a 6-4 ATS record overall and an even better 5-2 ATS record on the road. Toronto, conversely, has struggled significantly, holding an overall ATS record of 3-7 and a 2-4 ATS record at home, accompanied by a steep -44.44% home ML ROI. These trends heavily favor the Dallas Wings to cover the spread.
The total is set at a high 178.00. While the Wings have a slight lean to the Under overall (4-6 OU) and away (3-4 OU), the Toronto Tempo’s overall OU record is 6-4, with a neutral 3-3 OU at home. The combined records suggest a close call on the total, but Toronto’s tendency for higher-scoring games might nudge this towards the Over, especially with the high line.