Date: October 18, 9:45 PM EST
Odds: Reinier de Ridder -225, Brendan Allen +190
A fascinating middleweight clash is on deck as the decorated submission specialist Reinier de Ridder takes on the tough and well-rounded Brendan Allen. With de Ridder entering as a significant -225 favorite, the odds tell a story of a fighter expected to implement his dominant ground game. However, at +190, Brendan Allen is a very live underdog with the skills to pull off the upset.
The Matchup
This fight presents a classic “grappler vs. finisher” dynamic. Reinier “The Dutch Knight” de Ridder is known for one thing: getting the fight to the mat. A world-class grappler, his primary path to victory involves closing the distance, securing takedowns, and hunting for submissions. His long frame makes him a nightmare on the ground, where he can lock up chokes and joint locks from a variety of positions. For de Ridder, the fight isn’t about points; it’s about finding the finish on the canvas.
Brendan “All In” Allen, on the other hand, is a dangerous and versatile fighter who is comfortable wherever the fight goes but possesses significant power on his feet. As the underdog, his clearest path to victory is to keep the fight standing and make de Ridder pay for any takedown attempts. Allen needs to use his footwork and takedown defense to frustrate the Dutchman and create openings for his powerful striking. If he can stuff the initial shots and force a stand-up battle, the fight could quickly swing in his favor.
Keys to Victory
- For Reinier de Ridder: He must avoid a prolonged striking exchange with Allen. His success hinges on his ability to close the distance safely, initiate the clinch, and drag the fight into his world on the mat. Once there, he needs to work his oppressive top game and find a submission.
- For Brendan Allen: Takedown defense is paramount. He needs to maintain his range, utilize his jab, and punish de Ridder for shooting in. If he can force de Ridder to stand and trade, he has a significant power advantage and a real chance to score a knockout.
Prediction
While Brendan Allen has a clear “puncher’s chance” and the skills to defend takedowns, it is incredibly difficult to keep a specialist like Reinier de Ridder off of you for an entire fight. De Ridder has proven time and again that he only needs one opening to change the entire complexion of a bout. Expect Allen to have some early success keeping the fight on the feet, but de Ridder’s persistence will eventually pay off. Look for the favorite to secure a takedown in the second round and find a submission finish.
The Pick: Reinier de Ridder by Submission (-225)
Sources:
Reinier de Ridder surprised Bo Nickal accepted UFC Des Moines …