Game Details:
- Matchup: Nevada Wolf Pack (1-5) at New Mexico Lobos (3-3)
- Date: Saturday, October 18
- Time: 9:45 PM EST
- Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
- TV Channel: FS1
- Point Spread: New Mexico -13.5
- Total (Over/Under): 49.5
Game Preview
The New Mexico Lobos return home to University Stadium for a Mountain West Conference clash against the struggling Nevada Wolf Pack. The Lobos, sitting at an even 3-3, are looking to get back in the win column after a recent loss to Boise State. Meanwhile, the Nevada Wolf Pack are desperate to turn their season around, entering the game with a dismal 1-5 record.
The Nevada Wolf Pack’s season has been defined by an anemic offense. According to Rotowire, the team is averaging just 14.5 points per game. The betting markets reflect this struggle, giving Nevada an implied team total of only 18 points for this contest. With a 1-5 record, the Wolf Pack have found it difficult to compete, and they face a tough task going on the road against a conference opponent favored by nearly two touchdowns. Injury information for Nevada has been scarce, but their on-field performance indicates a team searching for answers on the offensive side of the ball.
The New Mexico Lobos have been more competitive, earning a 3-3 record and sitting 10th in the Mountain West standings. They are coming off a loss to Boise State, which dropped them to .500, and will be motivated to secure a decisive victory in front of their home crowd. Oddsmakers expect the Lobos to control the game, as their -13.5 point spread implies a projected team total of around 31.5 points. Keep an eye on running back Scottre Humphrey, a key player who has previously appeared on the injury report but is expected to be a factor in the Lobos’ game plan.
Prediction
This matchup paints a clear picture of two teams heading in opposite directions. New Mexico, while not a conference powerhouse, has shown enough competence to be a heavy favorite at home. Nevada’s offense is one of the least productive in the nation, averaging just over two touchdowns per game. It is difficult to see them keeping pace with a Lobos team that is projected to score over 30 points.
The 13.5-point spread is large, but Nevada has not shown an ability to stay in games. For the Lobos to cover, they simply need to play an average game offensively while letting their defense handle a Wolf Pack offense that has failed to launch all season.
The total of 49.5 is intriguing. If New Mexico hits their implied total of 31-32 points, Nevada would need to score 18 or more to push the game over. Given that Nevada averages only 14.5 PPG, the under seems like the more probable outcome, banking on the Wolf Pack’s offensive woes to continue.
The Pick: New Mexico -13.5
Total Pick: Under 49.5
Sources:
C-1 Notice of Injury or Occupational Disease Incident Report
Nevada Wolf Pack Injuries 2025-2026 – Updated NCAAB Injury Report
Nevada Injury Cases: Understanding the Impact of Hearsay
Week 1 Matchup Preview Thread: Nevada vs #2 Penn State : r/CFB
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