Game Details:
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (ALCS Game 5)
- Date: Friday, October 17
- Time: 6:08 PM EST
- Venue: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
- Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (RHP) vs. Bryce Miller (RHP)
- Moneyline Odds: Blue Jays -116, Mariners -105
High-Stakes Showdown in Seattle as ALCS Hits Game 5
The American League Championship Series shifts back to Seattle for a pivotal Game 5, with a trip to the World Series hanging in the balance. The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners will battle it out at T-Mobile Park in what has been a hard-fought series. Toronto sends its ace, Kevin Gausman, to the mound to face off against Seattle’s young right-hander, Bryce Miller, in a game that promises high-leverage drama from the first pitch.
With the moneyline odds nearly a toss-up, oddsmakers expect a tight contest, reflecting the intensity of this must-win postseason matchup.
The Matchup
Toronto Blue Jays Analysis:
The Blue Jays turn to their workhorse, Kevin Gausman, to deliver a crucial road victory. As a veteran with a proven track record in big games, Gausman’s devastating fastball-splitter combination will be key to navigating a Mariners lineup backed by a raucous home crowd. Throughout the 2025 season, Toronto has relied on its potent offense, which proved to be one of the league’s best since June.
However, Toronto’s pitching depth has been tested. The team has been playing without starter José Berríos (elbow), who was ruled out for the ALDS and remains unavailable, putting even more pressure on Gausman to deliver a deep, effective outing. While the Jays have battled various injuries during their campaign, their core lineup will be looking to provide their ace with enough run support to silence the Seattle faithful.
Seattle Mariners Analysis:
The Mariners counter with Bryce Miller, a talented young arm who has become a vital piece of their rotation. Pitching at home in the biggest game of his career, Miller will look to harness the electric atmosphere at T–Mobile Park. He’ll need to be sharp against a dangerous Blue Jays batting order from top to bottom.
The Mariners have leaned on their strong pitching and timely hitting all season, a formula that has carried them to the brink of a World Series appearance. With hitters like Cal Raleigh providing power in the middle of the order, Seattle has proven it can manufacture runs when it matters most. After dealing with their own share of injuries throughout the year, the Mariners enter this game with a battle-tested roster ready for the moment.
Prediction and Betting Pick
This game presents a classic playoff dilemma: the proven ace on the road versus the talented young pitcher at home. Kevin Gausman gives the Blue Jays a clear advantage on paper, which is why they are slight road favorites. He is the pitcher any team would want on the mound in this situation.
However, the value in this matchup lies with the home underdog. T-Mobile Park will be an incredibly difficult environment for the visiting Blue Jays, and playoff pressure can affect even the most seasoned veterans. Bryce Miller has the talent to rise to the occasion, and the Mariners’ offense has shown a knack for delivering in the clutch. At -105, the odds on the Mariners are too good to pass up in what is essentially a coin-flip game. In a high-stakes Game 5, the home-field advantage could be the deciding factor.
The Pick: Seattle Mariners ML (-105)
Sources:
Toronto Blue Jays Injury Status – ESPN
Blue Jays injuries and roster moves
Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report and Status 2025 – CBS Sports
MLB Injury Report 2025: Fractures, Strains, Tommy John, and more …
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report | RosterResource | FanGraphs …
Blue Jays injury update on Bichette
[Matheson] Blue Jays injury updates: : r/Torontobluejays
Blue Jays Injury Report: Jordan Romano set to begin throwing …
Blue Jays injury updates: Latest on Springer, Kirk, Gimenez …
Blue Jays injury update: Anthony Santander hasn’t started hitting yet