Game: Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces
Date: Tuesday, October 3, 2025
Time: 8:10 PM EST
Spread: Aces -3.5
Total: 159.5
Setting the Stage
The WNBA Finals are here, and it’s a heavyweight battle as the Phoenix Mercury travel to Las Vegas to take on the reigning champion Aces in Game 1. The Aces, fresh off a dramatic Game 5 semifinal victory, are looking to take the first step toward a historic three-peat. The Mercury, having battled through a tough playoff bracket, are aiming to play spoiler and steal home-court advantage right from the start.
Phoenix Mercury Outlook
The Phoenix Mercury have proven their resilience, advancing through the first round and a hard-fought semifinal series to earn their spot in the Finals. Based on recent reports from their playoff run in September, the team enters this championship series with a relatively clean bill of health.
Their confidence against the Aces should be high. In a regular-season matchup on August 15, the Mercury “went down to the wire” against Las Vegas, ultimately losing a heartbreaker due to a late turnover. That performance proved they can hang with the champs, and they will be focused on closing the deal this time around. With no significant injuries reported, Phoenix brings its full arsenal to Las Vegas.
Las Vegas Aces Outlook
The Las Vegas Aces are exactly where they expect to be: competing for another WNBA title. They punched their ticket to the Finals in style, with superstar A’ja Wilson delivering a masterful 35-point performance in a winner-take-all Game 5 semifinal on September 30. Wilson is playing at an MVP level, and her ability to dominate on both ends of the floor makes the Aces an incredibly tough out.
Like their opponent, the Aces appear to be heading into the Finals in good health, with no major injuries listed in recent reports. Playing at home, where they have been dominant, gives them a significant edge in this series opener.
Prediction
This game hinges on two key factors: A’ja Wilson’s dominance and the Mercury’s ability to execute down the stretch. Phoenix proved it can compete with Vegas in their close August matchup, but that loss stemming from a late turnover highlights the razor-thin margin for error against the champions.
The Aces have the experience, the home-court advantage, and the best player on the floor in Wilson, who is coming off a sensational performance. While Phoenix will keep it competitive, the combination of Vegas’s championship pedigree and Wilson’s current form is too much to bet against. The 3.5-point spread feels small for a team of this caliber playing at home.
With both teams healthy and featuring high-powered offenses, expect a fast-paced game with plenty of scoring. The stakes of a Finals opener should only add to the intensity and offensive output.
The Pick: Las Vegas Aces -3.5Total: Over 159.5Predicted Score: Aces 85 – Mercury 78
Sources:
Phoenix Mercury Injury Status – ESPN
Mercury Injury Report Update : r/wnba
Case report of metallic mercury injury
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