The Fight: The UFC schedule resumes Saturday night (Sunday morning locally) from Perth, Western Australia: Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg vs. Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes.

Date: Saturday, September 28, 2025

Location: Perth, Australia

TV: ESPN App, ESPN+

Odds: Carlos Ulberg -250 (Favorite), Dominick Reyes +210 (Underdog)

The Storyline: A Main Event Years in the Making

In what can only be described as a “cursed” fight that is finally coming to fruition, a pivotal light heavyweight main event is set for UFC Perth. The third time is hopefully the charm for Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes, a matchup that has been derailed by both an Ulberg injury and a life-threatening medical condition for Reyes. Now, the two will finally clash in a classic crossroads bout: the surging favorite versus the former title challenger on a redemption tour.

The Case for Dominick Reyes (+210)

It’s impossible to discuss Dominick Reyes without acknowledging the brutal road he has traveled. Once the man many believed beat Jon Jones, Reyes went on a devastating skid, including a brutal spinning elbow knockout loss to Jiří Procházka that left him with orbital fractures, nose injuries, and a six-month medical suspension.

His struggles weren’t confined to the octagon. As recently as February 2024, Reyes revealed he was forced to the sidelines after a massage led to the discovery of deep-vein thrombosis (blood clots), a serious condition where his doctor reportedly warned him, “if you wake up, you’re lucky.”

Despite this harrowing journey, Reyes is now reportedly “back on a winning path and carries more than momentum” into this main event. He is no longer just a fighter recovering from damage, but a man who has overcome a life-threatening health scare to return to the sport he loves. As a massive underdog, he has the veteran experience of having faced the division’s elite and the motivation of a man fighting on borrowed time. If his chin has recovered and his body is truly healthy, his experience and power make him a very dangerous underdog.

The Case for Carlos Ulberg (-250)

Carlos Ulberg, the New Zealand native and former kickboxer known as “Black Jag,” enters this fight as the heavy favorite for a reason. His athleticism is so respected that his opponent, Dominick Reyes, has even called him a “way better athlete than Jon Jones.” This high praise speaks volumes about the physical threat Ulberg presents.

However, Ulberg’s biggest challenge has been getting to the fight itself. His career has been a “rollercoaster,” marked by multiple withdrawals due to injury. He was forced out of a previously scheduled bout with Reyes at UFC 297 and more recently had to pull out of a high-profile fight against Anthony Smith at UFC 303. This history of unreliability is the biggest question mark surrounding the favorite. But when he is healthy and in the cage, his striking prowess is undeniable, and the betting odds reflect the danger he poses to anyone in the division.

Prediction

This is a fascinating clash of narratives. On one side, you have the incredible comeback story of Dominick Reyes, who has overcome devastating knockouts and a near-fatal health condition to earn another main event. On the other, you have the surging, athletic powerhouse in Carlos Ulberg, who looks to finally capitalize on his momentum if he can stay healthy.

While Reyes’s story is one of incredible resilience, the physical toll is a major concern. The search results highlight a history of “brutal” damage, from facial fractures to leg trauma. Ulberg, despite his own injury history, brings a dynamic striking game that has troubled Reyes in the past.

The odds tell the story here. Ulberg is the younger, more athletic fighter on the ascent. While Reyes’s heart is unquestionable, the damage he has absorbed is a significant liability against a sharp kickboxer like Ulberg. Expect Ulberg to use his speed and technique to test Reyes’s chin early and often. While a fairytale comeback for Reyes would be a sight to see, the more likely outcome is the favorite proving why he is so highly touted.

Official Prediction: Carlos Ulberg by TKO in Round 2.

Sources:
UFC 303: Carlos Ulberg withdraws from fight against Anthony Smith …
Carlos Ulberg – Wikipedia
Dominick Reyes vs. Carlos Ulberg Drops Off UFC 297
Morning Report: Dominick Reyes recalls doctor saying ‘if you wake …
Dom Reyes fight on Jan 20th vs Carlos Ulberg is off, due to Carlos …
Carlos Ulberg (“Black Jag”) | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology
Dominick Reyes: Carlos Ulberg ‘way better’ athlete than Jon Jones …
UFC: The ‘cursed’ fight at UFC 303 | Marca
Dominick Reyes Returns to Winning Form Ahead of UFC Perth Main …
Jamahal Hill: Meniscus, ACL injuries led to UFC 303 withdrawal …