Game Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 7:15 PM EST
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller (RHP) vs. Joey Wentz (LHP)
Moneyline Odds: Pirates +129 | Braves -158
The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves in a late-season matchup. The Braves enter the contest as firm home favorites, according to the moneyline, but will have to contend with a significant, last-minute injury to a key player. The Pirates, listed as 5th in their division, will look to play the role of spoiler and capitalize on the opportunity with their top pitcher on the mound.
Pitching Matchup
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller, RHP
Atlanta Braves: Joey Wentz, LHP
The game features a classic righty-versus-lefty starting pitching duel. The Pirates will send Mitch Keller to the mound, while the Braves will counter with southpaw Joey Wentz. While detailed season statistics for the pitchers are not available in the provided information, the matchup itself presents an interesting dynamic for both lineups.
Betting Analysis
The Atlanta Braves are listed as -158 favorites, meaning a bettor would need to risk $158 to win $100 on a Braves victory. The visiting Pittsburgh Pirates are the underdogs at +129, which would pay out $129 on a $100 wager. Betting analysis from various outlets indicates that moneyline, over/under, and other odds have been actively tracked for this contest.
Injury Report
Injuries are a major storyline heading into this game, particularly for the home team.
Atlanta Braves:The Braves’ resilience has been tested throughout the 2025 season, with stars like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Sean Murphy missing time. However, the most immediate and impactful injury is the one confirmed just ahead of this series.
- 2B Ozzie Albies (fractured hamate bone): According to a report from Atlanta News First, Albies is dealing with a fractured hamate bone in his hand. This is a significant blow to the Braves’ lineup right before their game against the Pirates.
- The team has also dealt with injuries to key players throughout the year, including Ronald Acuña Jr. (torn ACL, calf strain), Sean Murphy (cracked rib), and pitcher Spencer Strider.
Pittsburgh Pirates:The Pirates have also navigated their own set of injuries, primarily on the pitching side.
- Jared Jones (UCL/Elbow): The right-handed starter has been working his way back from an elbow injury.
- Valdez (Shoulder): Placed on the 60-day injured list with shoulder inflammation, Valdez is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
Prediction
On paper and according to the oddsmakers, this is the Braves’ game to lose. They are the superior team playing on their home field. However, the recent news of Ozzie Albies’ fractured hamate bone cannot be overstated. Losing a player of his caliber creates a major hole in the lineup and puts more pressure on a pitching staff led tonight by Joey Wentz.
This injury opens the door for the Pirates. With Mitch Keller on the mound, they have a solid chance to keep the game close and pull off an upset. The +129 odds on Pittsburgh present significant value given the Braves’ sudden lineup change.
While Atlanta has demonstrated the ability to win despite injuries all season, the timing of this loss is brutal. This game projects to be much closer than the odds initially suggest. The Braves may still have enough firepower to squeak out a win, but the value pick is the underdog. For this prediction, we’ll stick with the home team to find a way, but don’t be surprised if the Pirates make it a nail-biter.
Final Score Prediction: Braves 4, Pirates 3
Sources:
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report and Status 2025 – CBSSports.com
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Status – ESPN
Braves-Pirates injury report: Ozzie Albies’ hand injury prompts …
Pirates injuries and roster moves
Pirates injury report: Colin Holderman takes another step toward …
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report Shows Players Returning
Braves vs. Pirates: Injury Report, Updates & Probable Starters …
2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report | RosterResource | FanGraphs …
Pirates injury report: Colin Moran, Phillip Evans close to getting back …
2024-2025 Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report | Lines.com