Here is a game preview and prediction for the upcoming Light Heavyweight bout.
The Matchup: Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg vs. Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes
Division: Light Heavyweight
Date: Saturday, September 28, 2024
Time (ET): Approx. 12:45 AM
Odds: Carlos Ulberg -225 (Favorite), Dominick Reyes +190 (Underdog)
The Storyline: Crossroads at 205 Pounds
This much-anticipated light heavyweight clash pits a surging contender against a former title challenger desperate to reclaim his former glory. Carlos Ulberg, the polished kickboxer from City Kickboxing, looks to extend his impressive winning streak and break into the division’s elite. Across the octagon stands Dominick Reyes, a man who once took pound-for-pound king Jon Jones to the absolute limit, but has since fallen on hard times with a string of devastating knockout losses and significant health setbacks.
This fight, originally scheduled for UFC 297 before an Ulberg injury postponed it, represents a critical juncture for both men. For Ulberg, it’s a chance to add a marquee name to his resume. For Reyes, it could be his last stand to prove he still belongs among the top contenders at 205 pounds.
Carlos Ulberg: The Ascending Striker
Riding a six-fight winning streak, Carlos Ulberg (-225) has looked every bit the part of a future title contender. Training alongside champions like Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski, “Black Jag” employs a patient, technical, and punishing striking game. His sharp jab, powerful leg kicks, and fluid movement make him a difficult puzzle to solve on the feet.
While recent injuries have forced him to withdraw from scheduled bouts against Reyes and Anthony Smith, when healthy, Ulberg has been a model of destructive efficiency. His primary challenge will be navigating the power and experience of a former top-tier opponent. He must use his superior speed and footwork to avoid the heavy bombs Reyes is known for and prove he can handle the pressure of fighting a respected veteran.
Dominick Reyes: The Devastator’s Redemption
It’s been a brutal few years for Dominick Reyes (+190). After his razor-thin, controversial decision loss to Jon Jones in 2020—a fight many believe he won—Reyes suffered brutal knockout losses to Jan Błachowicz and Jiří Procházka. The latter KO left him with significant facial injuries and a lengthy medical suspension. More recently, Reyes revealed he battled a serious medical condition involving blood clots that threatened his life and career.
Now returning to the octagon, “The Devastator” is a massive question mark. Can his chin hold up after the damage it has sustained? Has the long layoff allowed his body to fully recover, or will ring rust be a factor? Reyes’s path to victory relies on rediscovering the explosive power and timing that made him a title challenger. He has faced the best in the world and won’t be intimidated. If he can close the distance, land his thunderous left hand, and turn this into a brawl, he has the power to end the fight at any moment.
Prediction & Keys to Victory
For Carlos Ulberg: The game plan is simple: stick and move. He must use his kickboxing acumen, length, and footwork to keep Reyes at the end of his punches. By attacking the legs and body, he can wear Reyes down and diminish his one-punch knockout power. If Ulberg can avoid a firefight and control the distance, his technical superiority should shine through as the rounds progress.
For Dominick Reyes: He needs to make this fight ugly. He cannot afford to engage in a technical kickboxing match with a specialist like Ulberg. Reyes must press forward, cut off the cage, and force exchanges in the pocket where his power is most effective. His best chance is to land a clean, powerful shot early to remind Ulberg of the danger he possesses and disrupt his rhythm.
The Pick: While the heart of the MMA world would love to see a Dominick Reyes comeback story, the momentum and recent history heavily favor Carlos Ulberg. Reyes has absorbed an immense amount of damage in his last few fights and is returning from serious health issues. Ulberg is sharp, confident, and on a clear upward trajectory. Expect Ulberg to weather an early storm from Reyes before his technical striking, speed, and volume take over, leading to a finish in the mid-to-late rounds.
Prediction: Carlos Ulberg by TKO (Round 2)
Sources:
UFC 303: Carlos Ulberg withdraws from fight against Anthony Smith …
Carlos Ulberg – Wikipedia
[Benny P on X] Unfortunately per my sources Carlos Ulberg is out of …
Carlos Ulberg (“Black Jag”) | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology
Dom Reyes fight on Jan 20th vs Carlos Ulberg is off, due to Carlos …
UFC: The ‘cursed’ fight at UFC 303 | Marca
Dominick Reyes: Carlos Ulberg ‘way better’ athlete than Jon Jones …
Jamahal Hill – Meniscus, ACL injuries led to UFC 303 withdrawal …
Dominick Reyes vs. Carlos Ulberg, UFC 297 | MMA Bout | Tapology
‘Very sick’ Khamzat Chimaev sheds light on delayed UFC return