Game Date: 04-13 12:15 EST AM

Moneyline Odds: Diego Lopes +126 | Alex Volkanovski -148

The Story:

Alex Volkanovski, the former dominant UFC Featherweight Champion, returns to the Octagon looking to rebound after a shocking knockout loss to Ilia Topuria. He’s facing a hungry, dangerous challenger in Diego Lopes, a Brazilian finisher known for his aggressive style and willingness to take risks. This fight presents a fascinating clash of styles: Volkanovski’s calculated pressure and technical striking versus Lopes’ raw power and submission skills.

Volkanovski’s Keys to Victory:

• Respect Lopes’ Power: Volkanovski cannot afford to underestimate Lopes. While he’s typically durable, Topuria showed he’s not invincible. He needs to avoid getting drawn into a wild brawl.
• Establish Range and Control: Volkanovski excels at dictating the pace and range of a fight. Using his footwork and jab, he needs to keep Lopes at bay and avoid getting tagged with a big shot.
• Utilize Leg Kicks: Slowing Lopes down with leg kicks will be crucial. This will limit Lopes’ mobility and power, making him easier to control.
• Wrestling & Ground Game: While he might prefer to strike, Volkanovski’s wrestling is a valuable asset. If he can take Lopes down, he can control the fight and potentially wear him down.

Lopes’ Path to Upset:

• Early Pressure and Power: Lopes needs to come out aggressively and try to overwhelm Volkanovski with his power. He needs to land something significant early to shake Volkanovski’s confidence.
• Exploit the Chin: Topuria showed that Volkanovski can be hurt. Lopes needs to target the chin and look for the knockout.
• Submission Threat: Lopes is a dangerous grappler. If the fight goes to the ground, he needs to actively pursue submissions.
• Embrace the Chaos: Lopes thrives in chaotic exchanges. He needs to create those situations and force Volkanovski out of his comfort zone.

Prediction:

While Diego Lopes is a dangerous and exciting fighter, Alex Volkanovski is a seasoned veteran with a well-rounded skill set. The key for Volkanovski will be to avoid a firefight, use his superior footwork, and control the distance.

Prediction: Alex Volkanovski by Unanimous Decision.

Why: Volkanovski’s experience, technical striking, and ability to control the pace of the fight give him the edge. While Lopes has the power to cause an upset, Volkanovski is likely to be more disciplined and stick to a game plan that will lead him to victory. However, the fight is risky to bet on straight as one punch from Lopes could change everything. A small wager on Lopes is a decent value bet at +126.

Sources:
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