In a key Eastern Conference matchup, the Boston Celtics travel to State Farm Arena to take on the Atlanta Hawks. Despite being road favorites, the Celtics face one of their toughest stretches of the season, playing without their superstar forward and navigating a recent slump. The Hawks, looking to capitalize and defend their home court, are dealing with significant injury issues of their own and a losing record at home. This game will be a test of Boston’s depth and Atlanta’s resilience.
1. Game Overview
- Matchup: Boston Celtics (25-15) at Atlanta Hawks (20-23)
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
- Time: 7:30 PM EST
- TV Schedule: NBA League Pass
2. Team Form and Analysis
Boston Celtics: The Celtics enter this contest with a strong 25-15 record but have hit a rough patch, posting a 2-3 record over their last five games. The primary story for Boston is the absence of superstar Jayson Tatum, who is sidelined with a long-term injury. This forces the team to recalibrate its offense and rely more heavily on its supporting cast. Jaylen Brown will be expected to shoulder the primary scoring load, with veterans like Derrick White and Jrue Holiday (if available) needing to step up in both playmaking and defense. Boston’s identity as a championship contender is being tested, and their performance in games like this will reveal the true strength of their roster depth.
Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks have been the definition of inconsistent, hovering below .500 with a 20-23 record and going 5-5 in their last 10 contests. Their offense remains capable of high-scoring nights, but defensive lapses and an inability to protect their home court have plagued them all season. According to the provided injury report, the Hawks will be without key big man Kristaps Porzingis, a significant blow to their interior presence on both ends of the floor. With a losing record at home, the pressure is on for Atlanta to find a way to win against a compromised, yet still dangerous, Celtics squad.
3. Injury Report
The injury list is significant for both teams, with major players sidelined.
- Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum (PF) is out with an Achilles injury and not expected back until April. Josh Minott (SF) is also out with an ankle injury. Payton Pritchard (PG) is a game-time decision due to ankle soreness.
- Atlanta Hawks: Kristaps Porzingis (C) is out with an Achilles injury, and Zaccharie Risacher (SF) is out with a knee issue. Dyson Daniels (SG) is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury.
4. Standings & Trends Analysis
Boston Celtics:
- Overall: 25-15 SU | 22-18 ATS (55.0% cover rate)
- Away: 13-8 SU | 13-8 ATS
- Over/Under: 17-23 Overall | 8-13 Away
The Celtics have been a reliable team for bettors, especially on the road. Their impressive 13-8 record against the spread (ATS) as the visiting team shows they travel well and consistently outperform market expectations. Furthermore, their games have a strong tendency to go Under the total, particularly on the road where the Under has cashed in 13 of 21 games.
Atlanta Hawks:
- Overall: 20-23 SU | 21-22 ATS (48.8% cover rate)
- Home: 7-11 SU | 7-11 ATS
- Over/Under: 22-21 Overall | 8-10 Home
The trends for Atlanta are alarming, especially at home. A 7-11 straight-up record at State Farm Arena is a major red flag, and their identical 7-11 ATS record in those games shows a consistent failure to meet expectations in their own building. Betting against the Hawks at home has been a profitable venture this season. Their games lean slightly towards the Under at home, but not as strongly as Boston’s trend.
5. Betting Odds Analysis
- Moneyline: Celtics -154 | Hawks +130
- Point Spread: Celtics -3.5 (-108) | Hawks +3.5 (-112)
- Total (Over/Under): 229.5o (-114) | 229.5u (-106)
The betting market has installed the Celtics as road favorites, implying a win probability of roughly 60%. The point spread of -3.5 is small, indicating that oddsmakers expect a close game, likely factoring in the massive absence of Jayson Tatum. However, making Boston a favorite on the road without their best player speaks volumes about the perceived gap between these two teams, especially given Atlanta’s struggles. The total is set high at 229.5, with the juice leaning slightly to the Over, though this conflicts with Boston’s strong Under trend on the road.
6. Prediction & Betting Angle
While the loss of Jayson Tatum cannot be overstated, the underlying data points to a clear betting angle. The Celtics have proven to be an excellent road team, both straight-up (13-8) and against the spread (13-8). Conversely, the Atlanta Hawks have been one of the league’s worst home teams from a betting perspective, posting a dismal 7-11 ATS record at State Farm Arena.
The Hawks are not only failing to win at home, but they are consistently failing to even keep games close enough to cover. Boston’s system is built on elite coaching and roster depth, which should allow them to execute effectively against a sub-.500 Hawks team that is also dealing with key injuries. The -3.5 spread is short enough that Boston simply needs to win by two possessions. Given Atlanta’s profound inability to defend its home court, there is significant value in backing the superior, more disciplined team.
Final Score Prediction: Celtics 116 – Hawks 109
The Pick: Boston Celtics -3.5 (-108)
Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.
Sources:
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics Head-to-Head in the NBA Regular …
2025-26 Team Comparison – Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics …
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks Head-to-Head in the NBA Regular …
Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics Basketball Head To Head, Score …
2025-26 Team Comparison – Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers …
2025 NBA Cup | Standings | NBA.com
Boston Celtics Head-to-Head Results | Basketball-Reference.com
Versus Finder | Player and Team Comparison and Head-to-Head …
Celtics vs. Magic first-round playoff preview, odds, prediction – NBC …
NBA Team Standings & Stats | NBA.com