Date: October 11, 2025 Time: 9:15 PM EST Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil TV: ESPN+
Odds: Charles Oliveira -110, Mateusz Gamrot -110
A high-stakes lightweight showdown is set for UFC Rio as former champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira makes a highly anticipated homecoming against the relentless Mateusz Gamrot. This matchup came together after Oliveira’s original opponent, Rafael Fiziev, was forced to withdraw due to injury. With oddsmakers setting the line as a complete pick’em, this fight promises to be a razor-thin battle where either man could emerge victorious.
The Case for Charles Oliveira (-110)
Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira will be fighting on home soil in Rio de Janeiro, providing a significant emotional and environmental advantage. “Do Bronx” is a seasoned veteran with a championship pedigree, but he enters this fight surrounded by questions regarding his physical state.
Oliveira has a notable history of injuries, including a micro-tear of his esophagus in a 2015 bout, a neck injury that caused his body to go numb, and other undisclosed issues that forced him to pull out of scheduled fights against Beneil Dariush in 2023 and Islam Makhachev later that same year. While his talent is undeniable, his ability to remain healthy throughout a grueling fight camp and the bout itself remains a primary concern. If Oliveira can enter the octagon at 100%, the energy from the Brazilian crowd could fuel a spectacular performance.
The Case for Mateusz Gamrot (-110)
Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot has carved out a reputation as one of the toughest outs in the lightweight division, and he’s no stranger to capitalizing on opportunities. He is coming off a series of notable, if sometimes unusual, fights. His most recent win was an injury TKO over Rafael Fiziev in September 2023, an anticlimactic result after Fiziev suffered a torn ACL. Gamrot also holds a decision victory over Arman Tsarukyan and a TKO win over Diego Ferreira, who later stated he entered their fight with a rib injury.
While Gamrot has proven he can find a way to win, he is not invincible, having lost a split decision to Dan Hooker at UFC 305. Stepping in as a replacement, Gamrot has the grit and relentless pace to spoil Oliveira’s homecoming celebration.
Prediction
This fight presents a fascinating clash of styles and circumstances. Oliveira has the championship experience and the backing of his home country, but his extensive injury history is a significant red flag. Gamrot, on the other hand, is a durable and determined competitor who has a knack for being in fights that end via opponent injuries.
The -110 pick’em line accurately reflects how close this fight is. While a hometown victory for Oliveira would be a storybook moment, Gamrot’s persistent, grinding style is the perfect test for a fighter with Oliveira’s documented physical issues. Gamrot will likely look to push the pace and test Oliveira’s durability, turning the fight into a war of attrition. Given Oliveira’s past setbacks and Gamrot’s history of benefiting from his opponents’ physical breakdowns, the slight edge goes to the replacement fighter.
Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot by Unanimous Decision
Sources:
Charles Oliveira Injury: Updates on UFC Star’s Esophagus and Return
Charles Oliveira’s Injury Update: Is the Former UFC Champ Fit for …
Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira Injury Update
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Max Holloway accuses Charles Oliveira of faking an injury in their …