As the college basketball season barrels towards March, every conference game carries immense weight. This Big East clash features two teams on opposite trajectories. The #5 ranked UConn Huskies, looking every bit the part of a national title contender, host a Creighton Bluejays team that has hit a major skid. With an electric atmosphere expected at Gampel Pavilion for Emeka Okafor’s jersey retirement, the stage is set for a high-stakes battle.

1. Game Overview:

• Matchup: Creighton Bluejays (Away) vs. #5 UConn Huskies (Home)
• Date: Wednesday, February 18, 2026
• Time: 6:59 PM EST
• Location: Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, Connecticut

This is a critical Big East conference rematch. The last time these two teams met on January 31, UConn dismantled Creighton on their own home court in an 85-58 rout, a result that looms large over this second meeting.

2. Team Form and Analysis:

Creighton Bluejays:The Bluejays enter this contest in a significant downturn. The team is struggling mightily, having lost five of their last six games. That stretch includes the aforementioned 27-point drubbing at the hands of these very Huskies. While they have historically shown some fight against top-tier competition (with a 3-2 record in their last five against Top 5 teams), their current form suggests a team lacking confidence and struggling for answers on both ends of the floor. To have any chance in this hostile environment, they will need a near-perfect performance and a return to the disciplined basketball that defined their earlier season success.

UConn Huskies:Coach Dan Hurley has his squad firing on all cylinders. The Huskies are not just winning; they are asserting their dominance over the Big East, with one search result noting they are the first team this century to start 11-0 in conference play. They are an elite unit, combining suffocating defense with a potent and balanced offensive attack. The Huskies are playing with a championship swagger, and returning home to a supercharged crowd for a jersey retirement ceremony only adds fuel to their fire. They have proven they can blow this Creighton team out, and there is little to suggest they have taken their foot off the gas since.

3. Standings & Trends Analysis:

A deep dive into the season-long trends reveals a fascinating, and somewhat contradictory, betting profile for both programs.

• Overall Record: UConn boasts an elite 24-2 record (92.3% win rate), establishing them as one of the nation’s premier teams. Creighton sits at a perfectly mediocre 13-13 (.500), underscoring their recent struggles.
• Home/Away Performance: While the data doesn’t split their win-loss records, we can analyze their performance against the spread (ATS). UConn has been an absolute nightmare for bettors at home, posting a dismal 3-11 ATS record in Storrs. Conversely, Creighton has a slightly better, though still poor, 3-5-1 ATS record on the road. This indicates UConn wins at home but consistently fails to cover large point spreads.
• Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams have been unprofitable to bet on this season. UConn’s overall ATS record is 9-17-0 (34.6% cover rate), while Creighton is even worse at 8-17-1 (32.0% cover rate). The market has consistently overvalued both teams, but UConn’s home ATS performance is the most glaring trend in this matchup.
• Over/Under Record: UConn has a slight tendency to go over the total, with a 14-12-0 (53.9%) Over record. Creighton trends in the opposite direction, with their games going under the total 53.9% of the time (12-14-0 Over/Under record). The total from their last meeting was 143 points, landing just under this game’s line.

4. Betting Odds Analysis:

• Moneyline: Creighton +980 | UConn -2000
• Point Spread: Creighton +15.5 (-105) | UConn -15.5 (-115)
• Total (Over/Under): 143.5 (-110o / -110u)

The betting odds paint a clear picture of an expected blowout. The -2000 moneyline on UConn implies a staggering 95.2% win probability, making it unbettable for any meaningful return. The point spread of -15.5 is substantial for a conference game but is heavily influenced by UConn’s 27-point victory in the last head-to-head meeting. The total of 143.5 suggests oddsmakers expect a game played at a solid pace but not necessarily an explosive track meet, which aligns perfectly with the 85-58 score from the last game.

5. Prediction & Betting Angle:

UConn is going to win this basketball game. The question for bettors is whether they can win by 16 or more points. All narrative signs point to a resounding UConn victory: they are the far superior team, playing at home, in an emotional atmosphere, against a struggling opponent they just obliterated.

However, a sharp analyst must respect the data. The most powerful statistical trend for this game is UConn’s abysmal 3-11 ATS record at home. The market consistently sets massive spreads for the Huskies at Gampel Pavilion, and they consistently fail to cover them. While Creighton is playing poorly, a 15.5-point cushion is a significant head start. They don’t have to be great; they just have to avoid another complete meltdown. The 27-point loss was an outlier, and while UConn is likely to win comfortably, a regression towards a more “normal” 10-14 point margin of victory is highly probable. The value lies in fading the public perception of a historic blowout and trusting the season-long data that shows UConn is overvalued by the market at home.

Final Score Prediction: UConn 82, Creighton 68

The Pick: Creighton +15.5 (-105)

Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.

Sources:
University of Connecticut Athletics Men’s Basketball History vs …
Men’s Basketball History vs University of Connecticut from …
Creighton Men’s Basketball Head-to-Head Results
UConn Huskies vs Creighton Basketball Head To Head, Score …
UConn routs Creighton 94-44 for largest win in series history
Greg McDermott’s 25 most memorable wins at Creighton
UConn men’s basketball matches best Big East start in 30 years
Doug Bruno Steps Down as DePaul Women’s Basketball Head Coach
UCONN Throttles Creighton Women’s Basketball At Home
UConn Huskies women’s basketball – Wikipedia