A marquee matchup on paper takes a dramatic turn due to injuries as the struggling Milwaukee Bucks host a Denver Nuggets team that will be without its MVP. What was once billed as a clash of titans now presents a unique challenge for bettors as a severely shorthanded Denver squad looks to survive on the road against a Bucks team desperate for a win.
1. Game Overview
- Matchup: Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM EST
- Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
- TV Schedule: Prime Video
2. Team Form and Analysis
Denver Nuggets:The Nuggets enter this contest with a strong 30-15 record, but their recent form and current health are major causes for concern. They’ve gone 3-2 in their last five outings, with their offensive output dipping to an average of just 108.0 points per game. The entire identity of this team revolves around superstar center Nikola Jokic, who orchestrates one of the league’s most efficient offenses. However, with Jokic officially ruled out, the Nuggets will have to completely reinvent themselves on the fly. The pressure will fall on a supporting cast that is also significantly banged up, forcing a "next man up" mentality against a tough opponent on the road.
Milwaukee Bucks:The Milwaukee Bucks are in a puzzling slump. Despite boasting superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, the team has stumbled to a disappointing 18-25 record on the season and has lost four of its last five games. During this recent cold spell, their offense has been particularly anemic, averaging only 105.0 points per game. While Antetokounmpo remains a dominant force, the team around him has struggled for consistency. This matchup against a depleted Nuggets roster presents a prime "get-right" opportunity for the Bucks to regain some confidence and snap out of their funk in front of their home crowd.
3. Injury Report
The injury report is the single most important factor in this game, with the Nuggets facing a catastrophic number of absences.
- Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic (C, Knee) has been ruled OUT. Jamal Murray (PG, Hamstring), Aaron Gordon (PF, Hamstring), Jonas Valanciunas (C, Calf), and Peyton Watson (SF, Ankle) are all listed as Game Time Decisions. Christian Braun (SG, Ankle), Cameron Johnson (SF, Knee), and Tamar Bates (SG, Foot) are also OUT.
- Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks are also dealing with several injuries. Myles Turner (C, Ankle), G. Trent Jr. (SF, Illness), and AJ Green (SG, Illness) are Game Time Decisions. Kevin Porter (PG, Oblique) and Taurean Prince (SG, Neck) are OUT.
4. Standings & Trends Analysis
Denver Nuggets (30-15):Despite their strong overall record, the trends must be viewed through the lens of their current injury crisis.
- ATS Record: The Nuggets have been a bettor’s dream, posting an excellent 26-19-0 ATS record (57.8% cover rate).
- Away ATS: They are even more impressive on the road, going 16-9-0 ATS.
- Over/Under: Games involving the Nuggets have trended towards higher scores, with a 27-18-0 Over/Under record (60.0% Over). This trend is unlikely to hold without their primary offensive playmakers.
Milwaukee Bucks (18-25):The Bucks’ trends paint a picture of an underperforming team that has consistently failed to meet market expectations.
- ATS Record: Milwaukee has a poor 19-24-0 ATS record (44.2% cover rate).
- Home ATS: Their performance at home is particularly concerning, with a dismal 8-12-0 ATS record.
- Over/Under: The Bucks have been an "Under" machine this season. Their games have gone under the total in 60.5% of contests (17-26-0 Over/Under record).
5. Betting Odds Analysis
- Moneyline: Nuggets +225 | Bucks -275
- Point Spread: Nuggets +8 (-110) | Bucks -8 (-110)
- Total: Over 214.5 (-106) | Under 214.5 (-114)
The betting market has reacted swiftly and decisively to the Nuggets’ injury report. A -275 moneyline price on the Bucks implies a 73.3% probability of a straight-up victory. The 8-point spread is substantial and directly reflects the absence of Nikola Jokic and the questionable status of several other key Denver starters. The market is projecting a comfortable home win for Milwaukee. The game total is set at a relatively low 214.5, with the juice favoring the under (-114), suggesting that oddsmakers anticipate a lower-scoring affair given Denver’s offensive losses and Milwaukee’s season-long trends.
6. Prediction & Betting Angle
This game is all about the injuries. While the Nuggets have been a road warrior against the spread (16-9 ATS), those trends were built with an MVP-caliber player at the helm. Without Nikola Jokic, Denver’s entire offensive system is compromised. Even if Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon play, they will likely be at less than 100%.
The Bucks have been a major disappointment, especially at home where they are just 8-12 ATS. Asking them to cover a large 8-point spread, even in this situation, is risky given their 1-4 record in the last five games.
The most logical angle here is the game total. The Nuggets’ offense will take a massive step back without Jokic’s scoring and historic playmaking. The Bucks, meanwhile, have struggled to score recently (105.0 PPG in their last five) and have been one of the league’s most reliable ‘Under’ teams all season (60.5% Under). The low total of 214.5 still feels a bit high for a game missing this much offensive firepower. Expect Milwaukee to grind out a win in a slow-paced, defensive struggle.
Final Score Prediction: Bucks 108, Nuggets 98
The Pick: Under 214.5 (-114)
Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.
Sources:
Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Head-to-Head in the NBA …
Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets Basketball Head To Head …
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head in the NBA …
Bucks Vs Nuggets Last 10 Game Log | StatMuse
2025-26 Team Comparison – Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets …
Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks History
Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks head to head
Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks injury report: Who’s playing …
NBA playoffs: What to expect in Thunder-Nuggets series | NBA.com
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: Injury Report, Game Preview Oct. 29, 2025