1. Game Overview
The AFC Wild Card round continues with a compelling matchup as the Buffalo Bills travel to face the AFC South Champion Jacksonville Jaguars. This postseason contest is scheduled for Sunday, January 11, 2026, at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. The game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
2. Team Form and Analysis
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills enter the playoffs with a 12-5 regular-season record, including a 5-3 mark on the road. Finishing the season strong, the Bills went 4-1 in their final five games. The team’s identity is built around its high-powered offense, orchestrated by MVP-caliber quarterback Josh Allen. Buffalo’s attack is capable of putting up points in bunches and can challenge any defense in the league.
However, the team’s performance has been inconsistent from a betting perspective. Despite a strong straight-up record, their success has not always translated to covering the point spread. Defensively, the Bills have shown moments of dominance but have also been susceptible to giving up significant yardage and points, which will be a key factor against a disciplined Jaguars squad.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars secured the AFC South title with an impressive 13-4 record, including a formidable 7-2 performance at EverBank Stadium. The Jaguars have been one of the league’s most consistent teams, not just in winning games but in exceeding market expectations throughout the season.
Jacksonville’s success is a product of balanced execution on both sides of the ball. The offense has been efficient and has demonstrated the ability to control the game’s tempo, while the defense has been opportunistic and effective at limiting opponents. As home favorites, the Jaguars will rely on their disciplined approach and the advantage of their home crowd to counter the Bills’ explosive offensive threats. Their consistent play has made them a reliable team throughout the 2025 season.
3. Injury Report
The Buffalo Bills are dealing with several key personnel issues. Linebacker Terrel Bernard (Calf) and cornerback Maxwell Hairston (Ankle) have both been ruled out for the game, impacting two levels of the defense. Additionally, outside linebacker Shaq Green-Thompson (Neck), running back Ty Johnson (Ankle), and kicker Matt Prater (Quadriceps) are all listed as questionable.
The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the postseason in relatively better health. Their primary concern is on the offensive line, where guard Cole Van Lanen (Knee) is listed as questionable. Otherwise, the team appears to be at or near full strength for this critical playoff game.
4. ATS Trends
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the NFL’s best teams against the spread (ATS) this season, posting an impressive 12-5-0 ATS record. They have covered in 70.6% of their games, beating the spread by an average of 6.7 points. Their home performance is particularly strong, with a 7-1 ATS record in Jacksonville.
Conversely, the Buffalo Bills have struggled to meet betting expectations. They hold an 8-9-0 ATS record, with a cover percentage of 47.1%. Despite their high-powered offense and 12-5 straight-up record, they have an average ATS margin of +0.7, indicating their victories are often closer than projected.
5. Betting Odds Breakdown
- Point Spread: The Jacksonville Jaguars are the -1.5 point favorites. This means for a bet on the Jaguars to win, they must defeat the Bills by 2 or more points. The Bills are +1.5 point underdogs, so a bet on them wins if they win the game outright or lose by only 1 point.
- Total (Over/Under): The game total is set at 51.5 points. Bettors can wager on whether the combined final score of both teams will be over or under this number. This relatively high total suggests that oddsmakers anticipate a high-scoring contest.
- Moneyline: While not explicitly provided, the Jaguars would be the moneyline favorite (e.g., -125), requiring a larger wager to win a smaller amount. The Bills would be the moneyline underdog (e.g., +105), offering a higher payout on a winning bet.
6. Prediction
The path to victory for the Buffalo Bills is clear: unleash their offense. Josh Allen must be at his best, extending plays and connecting on explosive passes to overcome a sound Jaguars defense. The Bills will need to force a high-scoring game and secure key takeaways to offset their defensive absences and overcome their struggles on the road.
For the Jacksonville Jaguars, victory will be achieved through disciplined, complementary football. They must leverage their home-field advantage and control the pace of the game with their offense, keeping the Bills’ potent attack on the sideline. Defensively, containing Josh Allen is paramount; they need to limit big plays and force Buffalo into third-and-long situations.
While the Bills possess the offensive firepower to win any game, the Jaguars’ consistency, superior health, and exceptional performance against the spread are difficult to ignore. Jacksonville has been dominant at home (7-2 SU, 7-1 ATS) and has consistently outperformed expectations. Given the Bills’ significant defensive injuries and their season-long inconsistency in covering the spread, the Jaguars are better positioned to secure a victory.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 28, Buffalo Bills 24.
Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.
Sources:
Bills vs. Jaguars Results | The Football Database
Bills Vs Jags All-time Record | StatMuse
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