Peach Bowl Semifinal Pits Undefeated Hoosiers Against High-Powered Ducks

A berth in the College Football Playoff National Championship is on the line as the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers face the No. 5 Oregon Ducks in a highly anticipated semifinal matchup. This game is a rematch of a regular-season contest where Indiana secured a victory, setting the stage for a compelling postseason showdown between two of the nation’s top programs.

1. Game Overview

Matchup: No. 5 Oregon Ducks (13-1) at No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (14-0)
Date: Friday, January 9, 2026
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Time: 7:30 PM EST
TV Schedule: ESPN

This contest serves as the second College Football Playoff Semifinal, held at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

2. Team Form and Analysis

Indiana Hoosiers

The Indiana Hoosiers enter the playoff with an unblemished 14-0 record and the No. 1 ranking. Under the direction of head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers have navigated a perfect season, highlighted by a 30-20 victory over Oregon in October. Their success is built on a foundation of disciplined play on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Francisco Mendoza leads the offense, which has proven capable of controlling the game’s tempo. The defense demonstrated its capability by holding Oregon’s potent offense to just 20 points in their previous meeting. As the only undefeated team remaining, Indiana has consistently met every challenge this season and carries the confidence of a team that has already bested its semifinal opponent.

Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks, led by coach Dan Lanning, arrive in Atlanta with a 13-1 record, their only loss coming at the hands of Indiana. The Ducks feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country, spearheaded by quarterback Dante Moore. Oregon’s offensive strength was on full display in their 51-34 victory over James Madison, where the team scored touchdowns on its first five possessions. The key for the Ducks will be maintaining that offensive rhythm against a formidable Hoosiers defense. Moore will be tasked with leading an offense that needs to perform at its peak to avenge its only regular-season loss and advance to the championship game.

3. Injury Report

The most significant personnel issue in this game involves the Oregon Ducks. Running back Jordon Davison, who leads the team with 15 rushing touchdowns, has been ruled out for the semifinal. His absence creates a notable void in the Ducks’ backfield, potentially making their offense more one-dimensional and placing a greater burden on the passing game led by Dante Moore. The Hoosiers, by contrast, enter the game with no significant players listed on the injury report, providing them with a key advantage in personnel availability.

4. ATS Trends

Based on the provided data, both teams have performed well against the spread (ATS) this season.

Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers hold a 9-5-0 ATS record, covering the spread in 64.3% of their games. More impressively, their average margin of victory is 31.4 points, and they have exceeded the spread by an average of 12.4 points per game, indicating a strong tendency to win by more than anticipated.
Oregon Ducks: The Ducks also have a 9-5-0 ATS record for a 64.3% cover percentage. They have won their games by an average of 22.9 points while beating the spread by an average of 5.9 points.

While both teams have been profitable for bettors, Indiana’s average ATS margin is substantially higher, suggesting a greater propensity for dominant victories relative to the point spread.

5. Betting Odds Breakdown

Point Spread: Indiana -3.5. As the 3.5-point favorite, Indiana must win the game by 4 or more points to cover the spread. Oregon can cover by winning the game outright or by losing by 3 points or fewer.
Moneyline: With Indiana as the point-spread favorite, they will have shorter odds on the moneyline, meaning a bettor wagers more to win less. Oregon, as the underdog, will have longer odds, offering a higher payout for an outright victory.
Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points. Bettors can wager on whether the combined final score of both teams will be over or under 48.5 points. Some sportsbooks have listed the total at 47.

6. Prediction

This matchup presents a classic conflict between an undefeated, disciplined team and a high-powered challenger seeking redemption.

Path to victory for Indiana (-3.5): The Hoosiers’ path is clear: replicate the formula that led to their 14-0 record and their prior win over the Ducks. They must use their defense to contain Dante Moore and the Oregon passing attack while exploiting a Ducks running game that is missing its most productive scorer. Offensively, controlling the clock and sustaining drives will keep Oregon’s offense on the sideline and allow Indiana to dictate the game’s pace. Their undefeated record and significant ATS margin suggest they are comfortable playing as the favorite.

Path to victory for Oregon (+3.5): For the Ducks to pull the upset, their offense must be exceptional. Quarterback Dante Moore will need to have a nearly flawless performance, connecting on big plays and avoiding turnovers. Oregon must find creative ways to generate a rushing attack without Jordon Davison to maintain offensive balance. Defensively, they must find an answer for the Hoosiers’ offense that they lacked in the first meeting.

Prediction: Indiana 27, Oregon 20.

While Oregon’s offense has the firepower to win any game, the absence of leading rusher Jordon Davison is a critical blow against a team as complete as Indiana. The Hoosiers have already proven they can solve the Ducks’ offense, and they enter this game at full strength. Indiana’s impressive ATS margin (+12.4) shows a pattern of exceeding expectations. Given their undefeated record, previous head-to-head win, and the significant personnel disadvantage for Oregon, the Hoosiers are in a strong position to win and cover the 3.5-point spread.

Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.

Sources:
University of Oregon Athletics Football History vs Indiana University
Indiana vs. Oregon football series history – Winsipedia
Indiana University Athletics Football History vs University of Oregon
Curt Cignetti – Wikipedia
2025 Football Schedule – Indiana University Athletics
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The Oregon Ducks Have One Key Stat On Their Side Against Indiana
Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 at midseason – ESPN