1. Game Overview
The San Antonio Spurs will travel to face the Memphis Grizzlies in a Western Conference matchup on Tuesday, January 6, 2026. The game is scheduled to take place at the FedExForum in Memphis, TN, with tip-off at 8:10 PM EST.
2. Team Form and Analysis
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs enter this contest with a strong 25-10 record, positioning them as one of the more competitive teams in the league this season. Their success is reflected in both their home (12-5) and road (12-5) performances, demonstrating consistency regardless of the venue. The Spurs have shown they can compete at a high level, highlighted by a victory that snapped a 16-game winning streak for the Oklahoma City Thunder during the NBA Cup semifinals earlier in the season. The team’s performance is largely built around star center Victor Wembanyama, whose contributions on both ends of the floor are central to the team’s game plan. Alongside him, guard Devin Vassell is a key offensive component for San Antonio.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies hold a 15-20 record on the season, struggling to find consistent footing. They have been more vulnerable at home, with a 7-9 record at FedExForum. The team’s performance has been significantly impacted by the availability of their key players. When healthy, point guard Ja Morant is the engine of the offense, known for his dynamic scoring and playmaking. However, his status has been inconsistent. In his absence, other players have been forced into larger roles. For example, in a recent 120-114 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, forward Jake LaRavia stepped into the starting lineup and delivered a 26-point performance, showcasing the team’s need for secondary scoring to remain competitive.
3. Injury Report
Both teams are managing notable player availability issues.
For the San Antonio Spurs, guard Blake Wesley (foot) is expected to be out until late January. The official report lists center Victor Wembanyama’s return from a calf issue as December 17, but more recent news has mentioned a separate knee issue, making his status worth monitoring.
For the Memphis Grizzlies, point guard Ja Morant is a significant name on the report. While the league report listed his expected return from a calf injury as December 12, he missed the team’s game on January 4 with a calf injury, leaving his availability for this matchup uncertain. Center Brandon Clarke (knee) had a listed return date of December 30. Additionally, guard Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) is not expected to return until mid-January.
4. ATS Trends
The San Antonio Spurs have been a reliable team for bettors this season. They hold an against-the-spread (ATS) record of 18-16-2, covering in 52.9% of their games. They have outperformed the spread by an average of 3.0 points per game.
The Memphis Grizzlies have struggled to cover spreads, posting an ATS record of 15-20-0 for a 42.9% cover rate. Despite their sub-.500 ATS record, their average ATS margin is +1.0, indicating that when they do cover, they tend to do so comfortably, but they fail to cover more often than not.
5. Betting Odds Breakdown
- Point Spread: The San Antonio Spurs are listed as 6.5-point favorites (-6.5). This means for a bet on the Spurs to win, they must win the game by 7 or more points. The Grizzlies are 6.5-point underdogs (+6.5), meaning they can win the game outright or lose by 6 points or fewer to cover the spread.
- Total (Over/Under): The game total is set at 239.5 points. A bet on the "over" wins if the combined score of both teams is 240 or higher. A bet on the "under" wins if the final combined score is 239 or lower.
6. Prediction
This game presents a contrast between a Spurs team enjoying a successful season and a Grizzlies team hovering below .500 while dealing with significant roster uncertainty.
The path to victory for the favored Spurs is clear: continue the formula that has led to their 25-10 record. Their impressive 12-5 road record suggests they are comfortable away from home. If Wembanyama is available, his presence in the paint will be a major challenge for Memphis. San Antonio’s positive ATS record and +3.0 ATS margin indicate a team that consistently meets or exceeds market expectations.
For the Grizzlies to secure an upset or cover the +6.5 spread at home, they will need a resilient defensive effort and contributions from across the roster, especially if Ja Morant is sidelined. As seen in their recent game against the Lakers, players like Jake LaRavia are capable of stepping up, but containing the Spurs’ offense will be a difficult task. The Grizzlies’ poor 42.9% cover rate this season is a significant concern.
Given the disparity in team records, the Spurs’ strong road performance, and the ongoing questions surrounding the Grizzlies’ key players, the logical pick is for San Antonio to control the game. The Grizzlies have not performed well against the spread, and facing a formidable opponent makes it unlikely that trend reverses. Both teams have trended towards the under this season (Spurs 17-19 O/U, Grizzlies 14-21 O/U), and with potential offensive stars limited or out, a lower-scoring affair is possible.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs -6.5, Under 239.5
Sources:
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