For the third consecutive season, the Mountain West Conference crown will be decided between the UNLV Rebels and the Boise State Broncos. In a battle of conference frontrunners, Boise State will host UNLV in a highly anticipated matchup with a championship title and bragging rights at stake.

1. Game Overview

• Matchup: UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos (Mountain West Conference Championship)
• Date: Friday, December 5
• Time: 8:01 PM EST
• Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

This game marks the culmination of the Mountain West season, with the conference utilizing a series of metrics to determine the two participants after a four-way tie in the standings.

2. Team Form and Analysis

Boise State Broncos:The Broncos earned the right to host the championship game and enter the contest as the favorites. The team’s path included a challenging schedule that saw them face teams like Penn State in the CFP Fiesta Bowl in the previous season. Earlier this season, Boise State demonstrated its offensive firepower in a commanding 56-31 victory over UNLV on October 18. Quarterback Maddux Madsen leads the offense, which has proven capable of putting up significant points. While the team suffered a key loss to South Florida earlier in the year, marked by three turnovers and four failed fourth-down conversions, they have since found their form to secure a place in the title game.

UNLV Rebels:Under the guidance of coach Dan Mullen, the Rebels have pieced together a strong season. At one point, they stood at 7-2 overall and 3-1 in conference play, relying on late-season results to secure their spot in the championship. A crucial 29-27 road win at Hawaii was instrumental in their quest for a title shot. However, the Rebels’ offense faces its biggest challenge of the season. They have shown resilience, but their ability to match Boise State’s offensive output will be severely tested, especially given a catastrophic injury at their most important position.

3. Injury Report

The most significant factor impacting this championship game is the injury situation for UNLV.

• UNLV: Starting quarterback Alex Orji is out for the remainder of the season. The Michigan transfer suffered severe knee and hamstring injuries, with reports indicating his left hamstring detached from the bone. This is a season-ending injury that critically hampers the Rebels’ offensive capabilities heading into their most important game. Additionally, receiver/running back Thomas is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, further clouding the Rebels’ offensive outlook.
• Boise State: No significant injuries to key players have been reported based on the available data. The team appears to be heading into the championship game at or near full strength.

4. Betting Odds Breakdown

• Point Spread: Boise St. -5.5This means Boise State is favored to win the game by at least 6 points. For a bet on the Broncos to "cover the spread," they must win by 6 points or more. A bet on UNLV would be successful if they win the game outright or lose by 5 points or fewer.

• Total (Over/Under): 58.5This is the total combined points oddsmakers expect both teams to score. Bettors can wager on whether the final score will be "over" or "under" 58.5 points. Their previous matchup this season resulted in a combined 87 points.

5. Prediction

The loss of starting quarterback Alex Orji is an insurmountable obstacle for UNLV. Facing a formidable opponent like Boise State on their home turf in a championship setting is a monumental task, and doing so without your starting signal-caller is nearly impossible.

Boise State has already proven it can dominate this UNLV team, evidenced by the 56-31 victory earlier in the season when the Rebels were at full strength. With UNLV’s offense now significantly compromised, the Broncos’ defense will be able to focus its efforts and create pressure. Expect the Boise State offense, led by Maddux Madsen, to control the game’s tempo and put up points against a Rebels team that will struggle to keep pace. While the Rebels have shown grit to get to this point, the quarterback injury is the decisive factor.

Prediction: Boise State 38, UNLV 17. Boise State wins and covers the -5.5 spread.

Sources:
Boise State University Athletics Football History vs UNLV
Football History vs Boise State University from Oct 31, 2015
Boise State vs. Unlv football series history – Winsipedia
Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction, Odds, Picks – October 18, 2025 …
Boise State vs. Unlv football series history games list – Winsipedia
2024 MW Football Weekly Release – Week 13 – Mountain West …
Boise State vs UNLV Rebels Head To Head, history, record – AiScore
UNLV football hoping for help in quest for MWC title – Las Vegas …
University of Nevada Athletics Football History vs UNLV
UNLV vs. Boise State for Mountain West title, metrics decide – ESPN