Game: Miami Heat at New York Knicks
Date & Time: November 14, 7:10 PM EST
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Odds: Knicks -5.5, Over/Under 236.5
A classic Eastern Conference rivalry is renewed as the Miami Heat travel to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Knicks. This matchup has an added layer of intensity as it’s a crucial game in the NBA Cup group stage. However, the biggest storyline heading into this contest is the lengthy injury report for both squads, which has turned this into a battle of attrition.
Knicks Hobbled at Home
The Knicks limp into this game facing a catastrophic injury situation. The team will be without its heart and soul, as All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson has been ruled out with a right ankle sprain. His absence leaves a massive void in leadership and offensive creation that will be nearly impossible to fill.
The bad news doesn’t stop there. Defensive anchor and rebounding machine Mitchell Robinson is also out due to left ankle injury management, severely weakening the Knicks’ interior presence. To make matters worse, their new superstar big man, Karl-Anthony Towns, has been added to the injury report with a contused knee, leaving his status for tonight’s game in question. With backup guard Miles McBride also sidelined, the Knicks’ depth will be stretched to its absolute limit, placing an enormous offensive burden squarely on the shoulders of Julius Randle.
Heat Missing Firepower
Miami is dealing with its own significant personnel losses, particularly in the backcourt. The team’s top perimeter scoring threats, Tyler Herro (foot) and Terry Rozier (personal leave), are both confirmed to be out. Herro has been sidelined for some time with a lingering foot issue, while Rozier was unexpectedly placed on leave by the league.
Without their two primary ball-handlers and shooters, the Heat will have to rely even more heavily on the two-man game of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. “Heat Culture” is built for moments like this, demanding a “next man up” mentality, but generating enough points against a Tom Thibodeau-coached team will be a monumental challenge.
Prediction & Best Bet
This matchup is a classic case of a betting line not fully reflecting the devastating impact of injuries. The Knicks being favored by 5.5 points without their starting point guard, starting center, and with their other All-Star big man questionable is a head-scratcher. The absence of Jalen Brunson alone is enough to cripple the Knicks’ offensive flow.
While the Heat are also missing key players, their core identity behind Butler, Adebayo, and coach Erik Spoelstra is designed to grind out wins in tough, defensive-minded games. This is exactly the type of game this is shaping up to be.
The total of 236.5 points seems wildly optimistic for two teams missing four of their top offensive creators. Both teams will likely slow the pace, rely on their half-court defense, and struggle to score efficiently. This has all the makings of a gritty, low-scoring affair.
The Pick: Heat +5.5. It’s hard to trust the Knicks to win, let alone cover a near six-point spread, without Brunson and Robinson. The Heat are a live underdog to win this game outright.
Best Bet: Under 236.5. With Brunson, Herro, and Rozier all out, a massive amount of offensive production is sitting on the bench. Both teams will struggle to crack 110 points. Expect a defensive slugfest that stays well below this number.
Final Score Prediction: Heat 107 – Knicks 104
Sources:
Miami Heat Injury Status – ESPN
C:\Safety\Heat Related Issues\Heat Injury – Initial Report Form.wpd
Miami Heat Injury Report and Status 2025-26 – CBS Sports
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