Game: Date & Time: Saturday, November 8, 2025, 12:00 PM EST

Venue: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

TV: FOX

Betting Line: Indiana -14.5, Over/Under 50.5

Game Preview

A Big Ten matchup with a startling point spread sees the Indiana Hoosiers travel to Happy Valley as heavy 14.5-point road favorites against an injury-decimated Penn State Nittany Lions team.

The Hoosiers enter this contest in a commanding position, not just because of their opponent’s struggles, but due to their own relative health. A recent injury report from mid-October showed a clean bill of health for Indiana, a rarity this late in a grueling conference schedule. They will look to exploit a wounded opponent and secure a crucial road win to bolster their standing in the conference.

The story for Penn State is one of profound adversity. The Nittany Lions (3-5) have been in a tailspin, and the root of their problems lies at the most important position on the field. The team was dealt a devastating blow on October 11 when star quarterback Drew Allar suffered a season-ending injury. The situation has since gone from bad to worse. Recent reports confirm that backup quarterback Jaxon Smolik is also sidelined with an injury, forcing the Nittany Lions to rely on a third-string option to lead the offense.

While Penn State has historically dominated this series, winning nine of the last ten matchups against Indiana, the current circumstances render that history almost irrelevant. The Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled to find any rhythm, and facing a conference opponent without their top two signal-callers is a monumental challenge.

Key Matchup

Indiana’s Defense vs. Penn State’s Depleted Offense

The key to this game is straightforward: can Penn State’s emergency quarterback generate enough offense to keep the game competitive? Indiana’s defense doesn’t need to be spectacular; it just needs to be disciplined. By applying consistent pressure and preventing broken plays, the Hoosiers can force turnovers and control field position, making it nearly impossible for a struggling Penn State offense to sustain drives and put points on the board.

Prediction

Covering a two-touchdown spread on the road in the Big Ten is never an easy task. However, this is an exceptional circumstance. Penn State is not just injured; they are crippled at the quarterback position. The team was already under .500 before this crisis, and now they are being asked to compete with one hand tied behind their back.

Indiana is healthy and knows it has a golden opportunity. Expect the Hoosiers to play a methodical game, control the clock with their running game, and force a beleaguered Penn State offense into mistakes. The Nittany Lions’ defense may keep them in it for a quarter or two, but their offense’s inability to score will ultimately lead to a comfortable Indiana victory. The total of 50.5 seems high given Penn State’s offensive woes, making the under an attractive play as well.

The Pick: Indiana -14.5

Score Prediction: Indiana 34, Penn State 13

Sources:
Indiana Pacers Injury Status – ESPN (PH)
Indiana Pacers Injury Status – ESPN
Health: Trauma System/Injury Prevention: Reports
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