Date: 06-15 Time: 6:10 PM EST
The Line: Mercury -4.5, O/U 164.5
Adjusted Preview:
The Phoenix Mercury travel to Las Vegas to take on the Aces. However, this is no longer a straightforward matchup. Key injuries and absences on both teams *drastically* alter the landscape. Let’s break down the impact:
Key Absences:
- Las Vegas Aces: The Aces are without their star A’ja Wilson, as well as Megan Gustafson and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus. A’ja Wilson is their main driver and this impacts the team hugely.
- Phoenix Mercury: The Mercury will be without Kalani Brown, Kahleah Copper and Megan McConnell. Both Kahleah Copper and Kalani Brown are extremely valuable to the Mercury, therefore, the result of them being out can make this a tougher game to win.
Adjusted Key Considerations:
- Impact of Key Absences: With so many starters and key contributors sidelined, this game will come down to depth and coaching adjustments. Which team can best utilize their available players to fill the gaps? How do the coaching change the team’s offensive and defensive identity?
- Rookie/Bench Player Performances: Expect less-known players to step into larger roles. Their ability to rise to the occasion will be crucial. Which team’s second unit can create more of an impact?
- Coaching Adjustments: How will both coaches adapt their game plans to account for the missing personnel? Will they emphasize different offensive sets or defensive strategies?
- Overall Pace and Scoring: Given the significant offensive absences on both teams, and if they rely on the bottom six, expect the game to be slower and lower-scoring than initially anticipated and the team with the better defence will have the advantage. If the depth step up, it could be a higher scoring game. These new considerations must factor in to any prediction. If the key defensive layers are also out, then expect even the ‘weaker’ forwards to get shots in, and a high-scoring game may occur.
Adjusted Prediction:
With both teams significantly depleted, this game becomes incredibly unpredictable. The Mercury are now favored to win. But the absence of star players is extremely influential on the game play and should not be taken lightly. Given that many key offensive and defensive layers are out, with so many on the same roster, with the game taking place in The Aces home court, it will be more likely that they still pull through for a win in order to defend their name. While The Mercury may also put up a fight, their lack of numbers is still more of a downfall, therefore, their stamina will become more challenged over time and they may fumble. All signs point to the game being slightly less in over 164.5 as most of the forwards on both teams may not be as confident and impactful as the initial roster.
Adjusted Pick:
- Even though the prediction is for the Aces to win, with the given considerations, **Mercury -4.5** – is too high given all the absences. It’s worth a very small wager if the line drops down. Otherwise, it will be a skip. The absences on both sides are too significant to confidently predict a spread.
- **Lean towards Under 164.5**. With significantly reduced scoring power and potentially more reliance on defensive efforts, the under becomes the more attractive play.
This game is now a stay-away or a very small “fun” wager due to the extreme uncertainty.
Sources:
Official Home of the WNBA | Women’s National Basketball Association
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WNBA – Women’s National Basketball Association Teams, Scores …
WNBA (@WNBA) / X
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