The Week 6 installment Monday Night Football is an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. It has obviously been a tumultuous week for the Jets, who fired head coach Robert Saleh following last Sunday’s London loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Meanwhile, Buffalo is the clear-cut class of an otherwise atrocious division and leads it with a decent 3-2 record.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Bills vs Jets predictions.
Bills -2.5 (-108)
James Cook to score a touchdown (+105)
Breece Hall to record 70+ rushing yards (+190)
Parlay odds: +1083
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Buffalo running back James Cook scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a win and cover by the Bills. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing New York running back Breece Hall to have a productive night on the ground. But even if he does, there is no reason why Buffalo can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Bills -2.5 (-108)
I don’t know why we have to keep watching the Jets in primetime, but the NFL continues to force-feed us a very bad franchise in standalone games. Well, at least we get to watch the Bills – who are a somewhat entertaining team thanks mostly to Josh Allen. The spread is small, but I’m not sure this game will be worth watching after the third quarter. New York is the much worse team even under normal circumstances, and now it is dealing with coaching turnover. In addition to Saleh getting fired, interim head coach and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich stripped offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett of his play-calling duties and gave that assignment to quarterbacks coach Todd Downing. That may end up helping; who knows? For now, though, the Jets are an absolute mess. It is true that the Bills have lost 2 in a row, but last weekend’s result was a competitive 23-20 setback against the 4-1 Houston Texans. Give me Buffalo to win comfortably on Monday night.
James Cook to score a touchdown (+105)
Buffalo’s RB1 has been cooking of late. The former Georgia standout has scored 5 touchdowns in the last 4 weeks (4 rushing, 1 receiving) and his most recent performance saw him gain 82 yards on 20 carries. That was Cook’s highest output of the season in terms of both yards and carries and the Bills should reward him with more volume on Monday. They don’t have to make Allen do everything. The Jets are basically impossible to pass against (#2 in both passing defense and yards per pass attempt allowed), so Cook should see plenty of action – including in the red zone.
Breece Hall to record 70+ rushing yards (+190)
New York’s offense has been wildly unbalanced this season. Hackett and Aaron Rodgers were – and presumably still are – best buds and the much-maligned coach asked his veteran quarterback to sling the ball over the place. In turn, Hall got a mere 65 carries through the first 5 games of this 2024. That is simply a malpractice in play-calling, regardless of how often and by how much the Jets were trailing on the scoreboard in those games. It’s safe to say that things are going to change with Downing calling the shots. I expect Hall to get a lot more work, starting on Monday. It’s the perfect situation, too, as Buffalo owns a stellar passing defense but stinks against the run. The Bills are #26 in that department and they are dead last in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed (5.2). Hall torched them for 127 yards when these 2 teams squared off last year in New York and he could run wild again.
