NCAAF Pick: Texas 1st Half -0.5 (-115) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Georgia and Texas meet in the SEC Championship Game, which will be a rematch of a regular season meeting that the Bulldogs won.
The sportsbooks had Texas favored by four at home in that game. On neutral territory now, the Longhorns are favored by slightly less.
For your best bets, I will recommend expecting a different outcome in the rematch. But the Longhorns will be strongest in the first half, so you should bet on them to cover the first-half spread.
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Georgia’s Slow Starts and Texas’ Fast Starts
As of Tuesday morning, the first-half spread for this game sits at Texas -0.5. Needing Texas, as good a team as it is, to win the first half is a very modest ask given how poor Georgia has been in the first half.
Slow starts have plagued Georgia throughout the season, from its season-opener when it only led Clemson 6-0 at halftime before beating the Tigers 34-3, to its most recent game when it trailed underdog Georgia Tech by 17 at half.
Other notable slow starts include the Alabama game, in which the Crimson Tide led 30-7 at half, and the Kentucky game, in which the Wildcats led 6-3 at half.
Florida and Ole Miss likewise led Georgia at halftime, although the Gators would lose the game, and Tennessee and Georgia were tied before the Bulldogs would go on to win by two touchdowns.
Overall, the Bulldogs rank 79th with 12.5 first-half points compared to ranking fourth with 18.7 second-half points. Their defense also ranks 40th allowing 11.5 first-half points, whereas it ranks 17th allowing 9.3 second-half points.
Conversely, entering this game, Texas is one of the best first-half teams. The Longhorns on offense rank sixth with 21.1 first-half points per game, and their defense ranks first with 5.2 first-half points allowed.
How The First Meeting Went
Now, the counter to this line of thought is that Georgia appeared to dominate the first half between these teams.
The key point here, though, is that, while they scored a lot of points in the first half, they did not score, because their offense was dominant. Their first-half scoring drives went for 13 yards, 13 yards, 34 yards, 25 yards, and four yards, respectively.
On offense, they were unable to sustain drives against Texas’ defense. Instead, they relied on fluke fumbles and interceptions that, given the facts that Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers‘ threw one interception in 118 November passes and that Texas loses less than one fumble per game, seem extremely unlikely to repeat themselves.
Outlook for Texas’ Defense
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck will face his greatest challenge of the season in the form of a Texas defense that ranks number one against the pass.
Folks say that he has improved, but Georgia Tech’s pass defense barely ranks in the top 100, and yet he failed to help his offense score a single point in the first half against that team.
The Longhorns are well-stocked at cornerback, including 2024 Senior Bowl Midseason All-American Team selection Jahdae Barron, and they feature two different players who have accumulated at least seven sacks: Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons.
Georgia’s rush attack won’t help Beck out — it ranks an awful 98th and Trevor Etienne, who was the team’s leading rusher, is still dealing with a rib injury.
But Beck, who has had trouble connecting with a pass-catching group that now misses a current Los Angeles Charger and a current Las Vegas Raider, will struggle against Texas’ elite pass defense.
Comparison in Pass Defense Quality
Consider, for example, how lowly Mississippi State’s quarterback performed against these teams.
Whereas Michael Van Buren Jr. threw for 306 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception against Georgia, he mustered 144 yards and zero touchdowns with zero interceptions against Texas.
Even low-quality quarterbacks thrive, especially with big plays, against Georgia’s defense whose secondary has suffered significant losses in personnel talent and coaching.
Ewers has the speed in his wide receiver group, especially track stars like Isaiah Bond, to create a lot of big plays.
Texas’ Improved Rush Attack
Moreover, Ewers will be supported by an improved ground game.
The Longhorns’ offensive line, which is a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award, is acclimating to the physicality of regular SEC competition, as evident in Texas’ last game.
Texas faced a strong Aggies run defense on their home field and amassed 243 rushing yards. In particular, starting running back Quintrevion Wisner has become more efficient and more productive on a consistent basis.
Georgia ranks middle-of-the-road in run defense after allowing over 250 rushing yards to Georgia Tech.
Expect Texas to use packages with Arch Manning to take advantage of the Bulldogs’ vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks, which it showed not only last week but also in its loss to Alabama, for example.
The Longhorns have the advantage going into this game of being able to counter. They will be more creative, and they certainly have the game-planning talent in their coaching staff to do a stronger job against Georgia’s vulnerable defense.
More physical in their offensive line, they will flex their big-play talents on Saturday.
The Takeaway
From the season opener onward, Georgia has been starting slow in the first half.
I believe that Texas will win the game, but it will especially thrive in the first half, where it will make the greatest use of its advantages through the air and on the ground and of its strengths in stopping the run and the pass.
This rematch will feature complete Longhorns dominance that will manifest itself most blatantly in the first half.
NCAAF Pick: Texas 1st Half -0.5 (-115) at Bet365
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