The New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals meet in week 1 NFL action from Paycor Stadium on Sunday afternoon. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals prediction.

New England Patriots Recap

The New England Patriots come into the 2024 season looking to forget their worst season in over 30 years, finishing with a 4-13 record, their fewest wins in a season since a 2-14 mark in 1992. New England will be looking to get back into the playoffs for the first time in three years and will hope to beat the odds to claim their first AFC East title since 2019. The Jerod Mayo era starts in Foxborough, and Drake Maye was selected 3^rd overall to be the QB of the future for the Pats. Jacoby Brissett will likely be the QB1 for the foreseeable future out of the gate, but whoever gets the nod has their work cut out for them as the receiving group is a lot of question marks with Kendrick Bourne coming back from a torn ACL, DeMario Douglas’ consistency is questionable and Ja’Lynn Polk is a second round draft pick that’s a relative unknown. The Pats do return Hunter Henry, who was an integral part of New England’s offense down the stretch last year. Rhamondre Stevenson will headman New England’s ground came while Antonio Gibson comes in to back up Stevenson. On defense, Christian Gonzalez is back in the secondary after an injury prematurely ended his season. Jabrill Peppers is back as well as Kyle Dugger. Ja’Whaun Bentley is expected to regain some of his prior form, but the Pats will rely on Deatrich Wise and Keion White to create a pass rush with Matthew Judon being traded away.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Bengals have lost five of their last six home openers as favorites.
• The Patriots have won each of their last two games as road underdogs against AFC North opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Patriots’ last five games.
• The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six September games as home favorites.

Cincinnati Bengals Recap

The Cincinnati Bengals are just hoping for a happy and healthy 2024 after a disaster of a 2023 season, finishing the year 9-8 but missing the playoffs after an injury-plagued season, including returning starting QB Joe Burrow, who dealt with a calf injury early and then a wrist injury later in the year. Burrow’s top options are both back in JaMarr Chase (although his status is up in the air for week 1) and Tee Higgins while the Bengals also used a 3^rd round pick on Jermaine Burton and brought in Mike Gesicki to upgrade the Bengals at tight end. The big question for Cincy will be the running back spot as Joe Mixon’s now in Houston, but Chase Brown was taken in the 5^th-round for the Bengals and Zack Moss comes into try to light the spark again after a disappointing tenure in Buffalo. On defense, the Trey Hendrickson saga has loomed large for the offseason in Cincinnati with Hendrickson demanding a trade after logging 17.5 sacks last year. The Bengals also lost D.J. Reader, but Sheldon Rankins was signed in free agency and Myles Murphy has a lot of upside to fill the Hendrickson role on the edge. Linebacker is fairly solid for the Bengals with Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt both in peak form coming into this year, but the secondary has a lot of moving parts and question marks that are still unknown if they’ll be fixed anytime soon.

Why the Cincinnati Bengals will win

• The Patriots have lost eight of their last nine Sunday games.
• The Bengals have won each of their last five games against AFC East opponents on a winning streak.
• The Bengals have covered the spread in each of their last five games against AFC East opponents.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five September games as underdogs.
• The Patriots have lost the first half in each of their last seven Sunday games.

Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction

My initial lean is to take a shot at New England and the points. Whether it was with or without Burrow, the Bengals in the last couple of years have been slow starters out of the gate and aren’t necessarily a team I’m thrilled to have to lay this many points with off of the rip. New England is still expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, but I think they at least come out fighting for their new coach in the opener. The wrinkle of potentially no JaMarr Chase also throws a wrench into plans to back Cincy early on. I’ll take New England and the points.