It’s ultimately the calm before the storm. We’ve got a weaker slate today but an insane slate tomorrow. We’ll just take what we can get today. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets for December 6. Here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Miami (OH) +19 (-110)
- West Virginia -9.5 (-110)
- Illinois -3.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Friday, December 06, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
The AI Model believes Miami (OH) will lose by 18 to Indiana on the road tonight. However, Indiana is +19 at Caesars Sportsbook. There’s value in the RedHawks tonight.
Is Indiana Back On Track?
The Indiana Hoosiers had a nightmarish end of November, losing to Louisville and Gonzaga by double-digits. Since those two losses, Indiana has won two consecutive games by double-digits and is back on the right track.
The Hoosiers have nailed 37% from deep and 55.3% from inside the arc. Meanwhile, Miami (OH) has allowed teams to shoot 36.5% from three and 56.6% from inside the arc.
That said, Miami (OH) can stay in this game by doing the little things right. The RedHawks have limited foul shots, held teams off the offensive glass and added 22% of turnovers. If Miami (OH) continues that intensity on defense, they’ll be in this game throughout.
Miami (OH) Can Score As Well!
The RedHawks aren’t playing at the level Indiana is. However, the team has still added 34.8% from three and 57% from inside the arc. We can still trust the RedHawks to score at a solid enough rate to cover a double-digit spread.
Indiana hasn’t been great on the defensive glass and certainly isn’t earning a high rate of turnovers. That favors Miami (OH), at least against the spread.
The Pick
Let’s ride with Miami (OH) at +19.
NCAAB Pick: Miami (OH) +19 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Georgetown Hoyas vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Friday, December 06, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at WVU Coliseum
The AI Model thinks West Virginia will earn a 10-point win over Georgetown at home tonight. That said, West Virginia is just -9.5 at Caesars Sportsbook. That would be good enough to cover against the spread in this Big 12-Big East battle.
Poor Shooting From Georgetown
The Georgetown Hoyas have added a 51.2% effective field goal percentage. That’s a little above the average. Yet, it’s not the two-point shot that’s destroying them. It’s the threes. They have nailed only 28.6% from downtown this season. That’s not very good, especially when Georgetown consistently struggles to get to the foul line.
Ultimately, the Hoyas have allowed 11.2% of steals per game this season, which is exceptionally high and slightly embarrassing. The steals will come for West Virginia tonight, as the Mountaineers have added 12.2% of turnovers on defense.
West Virginia Can Capitalize
Georgetown doesn’t shoot from downtown very well. However, West Virginia does. The Mountaineers have shot 35.4% from three and take way more threes than Georgetown.
With the Hoyas allowing opponents to hit nearly 35% from three, it’s looking like a great matchup for West Virginia from behind the arc. Also, Georgetown is great at forcing turnovers. If West Virginia can limit the damage there, the Mountaineers will be well on their way to a cover.
The Pick
Side with the AI Model and take Virginia -9.5.
NCAAB Pick: West Virginia -9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Friday, December 06, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Welsh-Ryan Arena
The AI Model suggests Illinois will add a 74-70 win over Northwestern as 3.5-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook. The play is Illinois, despite the Illini being on the road.
Can Northwestern Get Stops?
The Northwestern Wildcats are a good defense. However, they’re taking on an Illinois offense that ranks in the top 20. Illinois has shot 35% from deep and 57.7% from inside the arc. The Illini have also added 38.9% of offensive rebounds and have turned the ball over just 45% of the time.
Northwestern is likely to foul at a higher rate, and the Wildcats might not dominate the glass as well as they have in previous games.
Illinois Will Get Stops
The difference in this game will be defense. Northwestern, again, is solid. However, Illinois ranks No. 1 in the nation in effective field goal percentage on the defensive end. Illinois has allowed teams to shoot a 40.4% effective field goal percentage, including 26% from three and 41.1% from inside the arc.
Opponents are so afraid that they’re missing foul shots at a super high rate against Illinois.
The Pick
I’ll side with Illinois to add a couple more stops in this game and cover the 3.5-point spread.
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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