There have always been conference elimination games played in November. There still will be but we have a new toy to play with, the College Football Playoff. We know four teams will have byes and eight others will be invited to the party. We also know possibly the last two to three spots will have teams that managed to stave off elimination to earn an invitation.
That is exactly where Alabama and LSU are. Each is 6-2 and neither is guaranteed a spot even if they win this battle and the rest of their regular season contests. However, what we are almost 100 percent sure of is the loser will not get an invite. That sets the stage in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.
NCAAF Pick: LSU +3 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Tiger Stadium
Alabama Has to Win First Down on Offense and Rush the Passer
Quarterback Jalen Milroe is a big play waiting to happen. Whether that comes from using his feet or arm, he has the athletic ability and skill to generate chunk plays of 20 or more yards. The conundrum for Alabama is how to increase the frequency of those plays.
As we have seen in the last four games, the play-calling appears to have hampered the offense and left too many – whatever and long – from second down and the ones that follow.
Specifically, Bama has stubbornly tried to run on first down. No doubt running a sweep or misdirection play with Milroe can produce first downs or at least stay ahead of the chains. However, that’s not the case recently, and with Milroe not a dart thrower on short passes, the Crimson Tide lacks continuity.
Nick Sheridan is the Alabama play-caller and his name has come up increasingly for all the wrong reasons. Forget the 34-0 win in the last game against Missouri, who committed three turnovers and its backup QB is not an FBS player, the Tide only led 13-0 at halftime before pulling ahead 34-0.
Getting Milroe Back on Track?
The come-from-behind win over South Carolina and loss to Tennessee showcased a regression in Milroe and the position the team was left to deal on second or third and long leading to punts.
This offense needs to play smartly aggressively on first down to get Milroe into a rhythm.
LSU has the #6 passing offense with QB Garrett Nussmeier at the controls. Though Nussmeier can throw well on the move, he’s much better in the pocket. That makes it imperative for Alabama to do better than their average of 2.25 sacks a game and throw off Nussmeier’s timing in the passing game.
LSU Has to Run the Ball and Contain Keep Milroe in the Pocket
Like Milroe of Alabama, the offense of LSU revolves around the quarterback. That is mostly why both teams have two setbacks after eight games, they are at the mercy of their quarterback play.
Nonetheless, the more skilled observer will point out that every signal-caller cannot do it alone and needs help from their offensive teammates.
In the Tigers’ case, the lack of a consistent running game forces Nussmeier to carry the load throwing the pigskin to skilled receivers like Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, and Mason Taylor, among others. Maybe that works against Vanderbilt (sorry, not Vanderbilt this season), but not versus the top teams in the SEC.
The running offense was not strong coming into the season and nothing has changed, listed #111 at a pathetic 115.2 yards a game. Against the Tide, the LSU offense needs 3.5 yards a carry to keep the pass in manageable situations. Also, the offense line has to win third and short battles more often than not, since Alabama tackling has been a point of contention all year.
The LSU run defenders have produced three poor games against South Carolina, Ole Miss and Texas A&M and they survived two of them thanks to their quarterback.
The defensive mission this week is not to let Milroe escape the pocket or on designed QB runs, instead, get him to the ground with sound tackling. Do that and the Tigers faithful could go home happy.
Who Is the Right Side for the Crimson Tide vs. Tigers?
We have established the play of each quarterback will be imperative to the outcome for each squad and the more help they receive the likelihood of a preferred outcome will be enhanced.
Alabama is a three-point road favorite and needs the semblance of short to medium pass offense against Brian Kelly’s squad to keep this foe off balance, which opens up the running game for Milroe and others.
The continual issue of taking proper angles for tackling prevents the Crimson Tide from being a better defense. This could and should help the LSU in the run game if the offensive line does a good enough job holding their blocks when running or on quick slant passes since tackling their receivers in space is a challenge.
Though Bama is the better team as the betting odds suggest (LSU gets 4.5 points for playing at home), night games in Baton Rouge are different. Since 1960, LSU has been 201–59–3 (.773) at night in Tiger Stadium. This year, ESPN.com published the results of a poll of 14 of their college football writers for the “best stadiums in the sport.” Tiger Stadium was awarded first place.
If Alabama was still coached by Nick Saban, you would probably give the points. But he’s not and coach Kelly is on a 17-6-1 ATS run as a home underdog and the Tigers are 6-0 ATS at home versus good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry.
NCAAF Pick: LSU +3 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
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