With Alabama’s loss to Tennessee, the Crimson Tide stands at 5-2 and are precariously close to not making the inaugural college football 12-team playoff. They will have to win out and see what all the other contenders do to have a chance at being offered a bid.
Though Missouri is 6-1 (4-3 ATS), they have not turned many heads. The Tigers barely escaped against Boston College, Vanderbilt, and Auburn at home and were drilled by Texas A&M 41-10. Missouri wants a seat at the big boy’s table, can they earn one in Tuscaloosa?
Let’s explore the NCAAF odds and find our best pick at top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Alabama -13.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Missouri Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium
Missouri Winning but Hardly Passing the Eye Test
Last season Missouri had a breakthrough 11-2 campaign under coach Eli Drinkwitz. With a veteran cast returning, expectations were high to be invited to the new college football playoffs, which has 12 seats at the table.
The Tigers are on track for another outstanding year at 6-1. However, a program has an outlier year, which generates comparisons.
Underwhelming Performance
Though all the statistical numbers from last year are very similar on offense and defense, Mizzou football has the sense of underachieving or something is a little off. Maybe last year’s achievements were such a surprise the season seemed and felt magical.
Coach Drinkwitz has not addressed the media directly on this topic but knowingly acknowledges what people are saying and yet, expressed to his team to “have more fun and play loose”.
Maybe that’s it, when you go from trying to be bowl-eligible each season to trying to play for the national championship, the pressure can not only be external but internal.
Having watched the Tigers three times, they have not played with much joy or a killer instinct. Though the numbers appear the same as in 2023, the consistency is not there almost quarter to quarter and certainly half to half.
That will have to change at Tuscaloosa or a Texas A&M repeat might be possible.
Crimson Tide’s Talent Level is Down
Let’s be honest, it takes courage for a person to follow a legendary coach and continue on the same established path. Kalen DeBoer knew what he was walking into taking over for Nick Saban. It is not a job for the meek of heart and your self-confidence has to be strong because bravado will be exposed quickly.
Since jumping to a stunning 28-0 over undefeated Georgia, Alabama has been outscored 123-92 over almost 15 quarters of football.
It might be an overstatement designed for ‘X’ or some other social media, but the aura surrounding Alabama football feels gone.
The loss to Vanderbilt was not easily explained. Last week, failing to capitalize on three first-half turnovers by Tennessee, who was all but begging to get beaten again, and having only a 7-0 lead at halftime is inexcusable for a good Conference USA squad, let alone what has been the standard of excellence for well over a decade.
Watching Bama this season, you see a quality football team. But what is missing from the starting 22 are those 8-10 sure-fire NFL players that will be taken in the first three rounds of the NFL draft when their time to leave Tuscaloosa arrives.
There are far fewer difference-makers outside of freshman receiver Ryan Williams. While Saban demanded unparalleled execution, the same is not true of DeBoer players, at least right now.
This explains the Tide’s current situation.
Who Is the Right Side for the Tigers vs. Crimson Tide?
Missouri was released as a +14.5 point road underdog and they have hovered around +13.5 since. The Tigers’ chances of competing and possibly engineering an upset revolve around QB Brady Cook and his tender ankle.
When he left last week’s contest against Auburn, it was clear why Notre Dame made no real effort to keep former quarterback Drew Pyne, who made poor decisions and missed open receivers not by inches but feet. Thankfully, Cook returned to rally his team with 15 points in the fourth quarter to win 21-17.
Cook has to play great and get the ball to his team’s best player. The Tigers’ offensive coordinator has to force-feed outstanding pass-catcher Luther Burden III 10 times, preferably all in open spaces where he is a – To The House – threat. That is even more true since on Wednesday, it was reported leading rusher Nate Noel will miss Saturday’s game with a foot injury.
Missouri’s defense ranks #9 in total defense and in 3rd down conversion defense. They will be tested by QB Jalen Milroe who never settled into the loss at Knoxville. A conundrum for Milroe and his Bama offense is the running game has vanished. The Crimson Tide has averaged an unfathomable 87.6 yards a game in their last three outings, which comes out to 2.82 yards a carry over 93 tries.
Expect DeBoer’s bunch to have their most focused game since Georgia. Playing at home will matter against a foe with the same aspirations and don’t discount Bama has won 19 straight SEC home games (13-5-1 ATS) by 20.6 PPG. For a closing statement, Alabama is 6-0 ATS inhome games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season, winning by 20.9 PPG. Roll Tide!
NCAAF Pick: Alabama -13.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
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