Friday’s Olympic schedule promises us a collection of basketball and soccer matches that are worth investing in at the top-rated sportsbooks.
I am specifically interested in both women’s basketball matches, Australia vs. USA and Belgium vs. France, and in the gold medal soccer match between France and Spain.
With your best bets in mind, I will recommend investing in the Australians and Belgians in basketball and in the French in soccer.
Basketball Picks
- Australia +17.5 (-105)
- Belgium +4.5 (-110)
Soccer Picks
- France ML (+137)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Australia vs. USA (Women’s Basketball)
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 11:30 AM ET at Bercy Arena
How USA Wins By So Many Points
Because the Americans are favored so heavily – by 17.5 points, as of Thursday morning – it is worth considering how they tend to score so many points.
We want to ask ourselves whether the means by which they generally reach high-scoring outputs will be available to them on Friday when they play Australia.
My first point is that, on offense, the Americans primarily want to dominate inside. They sometimes thrive from deep, as they did in their 19-point win over Germany.
However, when they most recently scored 88 points in a 14-point win over Nigeria, they were not able to rely on their three-point shooting. Instead, as they did to the Germans, they dominated the Nigerians inside.
For their inside scoring, they primarily want to rely on A’ja Wilson, who is a characteristically strong and physical woman, and on talented forward Breanna Stewart.
Australia’s Interior Defense
My main point is that, while the Americans want to rely on dominating inside in order to achieve the higher point totals necessary for their endeavor to cover large spreads, the Australians boast a stout interior defense.
With their interior defense, the Australians have the ability to limit USA’s scoring total.
Ezi Magbegor
When you think about teams that can compete with Americans, you’ll want to find high-level WNBA talent.
Ezi Magbegor plays in the WNBA for Seattle, where she is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Metrics show her ability to take a low-level defensive unit to a top-caliber one. Her influence on the court owes largely to her height and wingspan.
She is so lengthy that she is able to regularly amass high block totals and alter opposing shot attempts. Her influence on Australia’s defense is likewise perceptible, as teams regularly struggle to be efficient inside the arc.
Takeaway
Australia won’t have to score that many points in order to cover the spread. But the Aussies do also boast high-level scoring talent, as in Sami Whitcomb, a three-point sharpshooter who plays for Seattle in the WNBA.
Basketball Best Bet: Australia +17.5 (-105) at Bet365
Belgium vs. France (Women’s Basketball)
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Bercy Arena
The Odds
Belgium is currently a 4.5-point underdog in this matchup. I contend that the wrong team is favored here.
As measured by point total during group play, Belgium has the second-best offensive unit in these Olympics. As they showed when they most recently dominated Spain by double digits, they are effective inside, but they can also be highly efficient from behind the arc.
They also showed, against Spain, how difficult they make it for teams to score on them inside the arc.
Key Point
France backers will point to the low-scoring totals that France’s defense has achieved. Does the promise that France has shown on defense outweigh the impressiveness of Belgium’s offense?
The key point is that France’s defense hasn’t always been so dominant. Against Australia, the French allowed 79 points in a loss. In this game, the Australians converted close to 60 percent of their field goals inside the arc.
My contention is that Belgium can do to France what Australia did.
For Belgium, Emma Meesseman reliably scored 20+ points per game. She is a terrific scorer inside. While France worries about the likes of Meesseman’s inside scoring prowess, the Belgians show good form behind the arc.
Takeaway
Belgium will, again, score too many points, and its defense is evidently difficult to score on. The Belgians have been covering spreads with ease – they are 3-0 ATS in August – because oddsmakers fail to appreciate their abilities on both offense and defense.
They have what it takes to exploit a vulnerable France said that is wrongly favored.
Basketball Best Bet: Belgium +4.5 (-110) at Bet365
France vs. Spain (Soccer)
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Parc des Princes
France’s Defense
France has allowed one goal in five Olympic matches. The French just beat an Egyptian side that scored two goals in a win against Spain. France’s superior defense will enable it to overcome Spain on Friday.
The key for France is the talent of its backline.
At center-back, for example, Loic Bade is a highly sought-after Seville talent whose video footage displays his high awareness and man-marking, and aerial abilities.
Another defender worth highlighting is Kiliann Sildillia, who plays for SC Freiburg. He is known for his versatility, his tackling, and his pace.
These two defenders typify the work rate and effectiveness of France’s backline.
France Can Score, Too
France has scored at least one goal in every Olympic match so far. The French have also scored three goals on three different occasions. They must be expected to prolong this trend against a Spain side that lacks France’s defensive ability.
Spain actually allowed the most goals in its group, tied with three other teams. Expect France to win because it has a far superior defense and a consistent and reliable attack.
Soccer Best Bet: France ML (+137) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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