Game Date: 04-15, 10:10 PM EST

Line: Grizzlies +7, O/U 229

The Setup:

This late-season matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors presents a fascinating scenario. The Warriors, favored by 7 at home, are likely still fighting for playoff positioning or seeding in the play-in tournament, lending significant weight to this game. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are likely playing out the string, potentially resting key players due to injuries or tanking for draft position.

Key Factors for the Grizzlies:

• Motivation: How much do they want to win? With their playoff hopes essentially dashed, Memphis may prioritize player development or resting injured players.
• Injury Report: Who is available? Key players being sidelined would significantly impact their ability to compete.
• Pace of Play: Can they control the tempo? A slower, more deliberate game favors their depleted roster, while a fast-paced shootout favors the Warriors.

Key Factors for the Warriors:

• Stephen Curry’s Role: Will Curry start or come off the bench as suggested in search results? If he comes off the bench, it impacts the Warriors scoring output early in the game.
• Home Court Advantage: Chase Center needs to be a fortress. A strong start and feeding off the crowd’s energy is crucial.
• Defense: Can they contain what’s left of the Grizzlies’ offense? Avoiding complacency against a potentially undermanned opponent is key.

The Pick:

Given the circumstances, the Warriors -7 appear to be the play here. Golden State has a significant motivation advantage as they need wins to solidify their playoff/play-in spot. The Grizzlies, likely missing key players and potentially not prioritizing this game, will struggle to keep up.

Regarding the Over/Under of 229:

This is a tougher call. With Memphis potentially resting players and Golden State’s recent defensive lapses, it leans towards the UNDER. However, Golden State is capable of scoring 120+ on any given night, so it’s a riskier bet. I would recommend leaning toward the Under.

Score Prediction:

Warriors 114 – Grizzlies 100

Sources:
2024-25 BOSTON CELTICS END OF SEASON GAME NOTES
Stephen Curry coming off the bench in Game 1 – Yahoo Sports
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