Latest Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract projection could spell bad news for Toronto Blue Jays

Author:
Sportsnaut

The Toronto Blue Jays face a potential future without the face of their franchise.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a four-time All-Star, becomes a free agent after the 2025 season. Guerrero reportedly rejected a $340 million extension from the Blue Jays this offseason and has set a deadline of February 18, the first day of spring training, to reach a new deal. Without an agreement, he will test free agency.

Guerrero is coming off one of his finest seasons, hitting .323/.396/.544 with a 166 OPS+, 30 home runs, 44 doubles, 98 runs scored, 103 RBI, and a 6.2 WAR.

If the Blue Jays fall out of contention midseason, Guerrero would become the most sought-after trade deadline candidate.

MLB insider projects astronomical contract for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

CBS Sports MLB insider Mike Axisa projects that keeping Guerrero would require significantly more than Toronto’s initial offer — potentially $585 million.

“These days, stars get signed through age 39 (Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge) or 40 ([Juan] Soto, Manny Machado). That’s the magic number. To sign Guerrero through age 39, it would be a 13-year deal starting in 2026. Call it $45 million a year and that’s $585 million total. And given the leverage Vlad Jr. has over the Blue Jays, that could become 14 years at closer to $50 million per year real quick,” writes Axisa.

Axisa noted that Juan Soto’s contract projections last year were around $500 million before he ultimately signed a record-breaking $765 million deal with the New York Mets.

“Whatever you think Guerrero will get, take the over,” Axisa adds.

The Blue Jays finished last in the American League East in 2024 with a 74-88 record, following playoff appearances in the previous two seasons. They have made three significant moves this offseason: signing All-Star outfielder Anthony Santander and All-Star reliever Jeff Hoffman, while trading for Gold Glove second baseman Andres Gimenez. These moves signal the team’s intent to contend in 2025.

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