The college basketball schedule will strictly consist of conference games in a few weeks. We’re just not there yet. Still, there are a few exciting games with top-25 teams playing. We’ll ask the AI Model for its thoughts on some of the games below.

Picks Summary

• Abilene Christian +23.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Gonzaga ML (-185) at Bet365
• San Diego State -4.5 (-110) at Bet365

Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Reed Arena

The AI Model believes Texas A&M will add an 82-59 win over Abilene Christian today. That’s a 23-point win, but Abilene Christian is +23.5 against the spread on Caesars. Let’s take the 23.5 points with ACU.

It All Comes Down To Rebounding

Abilene Christian has allowed teams to shoot 42.6% from three and 51.4% from inside the arc. Although the Wildcats are not a good defense, they’ve at least limited teams to 26.4% of offensive rebounds.

With good defensive rebounding, ACU can at least stick around. After all, Texas A&M is the country’s No. 1 offensive rebounding team but has shot just 31.6% from three and 48% from inside the arc.

Rebounding is critical for Abilene Christan.

Can ACU Get To The Foul Line Enough?

The Abilene Christian Wildcats have earned a 43.6 FTA/FGA rate. That’s 23rd in college basketball. In addition, the Wildcats have hit 71.5% from the foul line this season.

If the Wildcats can find their way to the foul line consistently, it’ll be hard for the Aggies to win this game by more than 20 points.

I’m siding with the AI Model and taking Abilene Christian at +23.5.

NCAAB Pick: Abilene Christian +23.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Intuit Dome

The AI Model thinks Gonzaga will escape with a four-point win over UCLA in the West Coast Hoops Showdown. Gonzaga is just -190 on the moneyline, despite the Model thinking the Bulldogs will win by four. Take Gonzaga.

More Foul Shots For Gonzaga!

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have earned a 32.9 FTA/FGA this season. While this ratio isn’t elite, it’s something to think about since the UCLA Bruins have allowed a 36.4 rate. This rate ranks 249th defensively and implies Gonzaga will get to the foul line at a higher rate.

With the Bulldogs shooting 81.2% from the foul line, the Bulldogs are in perfect shape to escape with a win here.

After all, UCLA has shot just 68.5% from the foul line this year. Gonzaga should easily win the free-throw battle.

Good Luck Finding Good Shots, UCLA

UCLA has an effective field goal percentage of 54.3%, 35.8% from three, and 54.6% from inside the arc.

But from downtown, Gonzaga has limited teams to 23.9% from three and allowed just 23.4% of offensive rebounds. Gonzaga is great at successfully forcing difficult shots and rebounds off those misses.

Let’s back Gonzaga at -185.

NCAAB Pick: Gonzaga ML (-185) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Viejas Arena

The AI Model predicts San Diego State will win 75-70 over Utah State at home. San Diego State is currently -4.5 at BetMGM, so the Aztecs are the favorites.

Utah State Isn’t Shooting Well From Downtown!

The Utah State Aggies are typically known for shooting it well from downtown. Instead, despite Utah State being 11-1, the Aggies have shot only 31.6% from downtown.

It’ll be hard to score against San Diego State, primarily since the Aztecs have held teams to 29.4% from inside the arc and 40.3% from inside the arc.

If Utah State doesn’t make its threes, it’ll be a long day for the Aggies.

Can San Diego Get Better From Inside?

The San Diego State Aztecs have shot a 51.3% effective field goal percentage. This is above average but nothing to get excited about. Ultimately, the Aztecs are good from three but have shot only 49.7% from inside the arc.

That said, the Aggies have allowed opponents to hit 52.8% from inside the arc. There’s a good chance San Diego State gets easier looks down low. They’ll take advantage.

Let’s ride with San Diego State at -4.5 here.

NCAAB Pick: San Diego State -4.5 (-110) at Bet365

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