The Rebels (16-13, 12-16-1 ATS) have rebounded from a five-game losing streak, winning five of their last six games against opponents like Wyoming, Air Force, Fresno State, San Jose State, and Nevada, with a lone loss to Colorado State. They are sixth in the Mountain West standings and are set to remain there for the conference tournament. UNLV averages 69.6 points per game (313th) and allows 68.0 points (68th). They average 33.7 rebounds (318th) and 12.0 assists per game (339th). Top performers include Dedan Thomas Jr. (15.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 4.7 APG), Jaden Henley (12.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.5 SPG), and Jailen Bedford (10.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG).
Why San Diego State Might Prevail
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The Aztecs have won ten of their last eleven night games at the Thomas & Mack Center.
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They have led at halftime in three of their last four night games against UNLV.
Total Points Insights
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Each of San Diego State’s last four night games against Mountain West opponents has produced a total of 138 or more points.
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Six of the last seven games between San Diego State and UNLV have resulted in totals of 133 or more points.
Matchup/League Facts
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UNLV ranks tied for 23rd among Division I teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.3).
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San Diego State ranks 2nd in opponent field goal percentage (37.4%) and 5th in opponent field goals made per game (20.8).
Prediction
San Diego State has won seven of the last ten head-to-head matchups and will be motivated to avenge an earlier season loss to UNLV. With a top-15 defense nationally, the Aztecs are expected to leverage their defensive strength against a UNLV team averaging below 70 points per game. Backing the Aztecs to cover the spread appears to be a prudent choice.