Two AFC West rivals take the field when the Denver Broncos take on the Los Angeles Chargers for this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football. Can the Chargers bounce back after their tough loss this weekend? Who should you back to make the winning NFL pick at the the top-rated sportsbooks?
Picks Summary
- Denver Broncos + 3 (-110)
- Broncos/Chargers Under 42.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Thursday, December 19, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Broncos on a Roll
The Denver Broncos come into this matchup on a four-game winning streak, albeit against dubious competition. The Broncos have beaten:
- the Atlanta Falcons.
- the Las Vegas Raiders.
- the Cleveland Browns.
- the Indianapolis Colts.
After a slow start on Sunday, Denver ran away with the game against the Colts for a 31-13 victory. Denver took advantage of a myriad of mistakes made by the Indianapolis Colts, but I don’t expect the Chargers to give away the game the way that Indianapolis did. Denver will have the toughest test they faced so far on this win streak.
Ground War Incoming
The key to the Broncos’ success this season has been the drafting and development of rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Nix has continued to improve his play every week and he is exactly what Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton is looking for in a quarterback. Nix can push the ball down the field when asked for, but he avoids mistakes and is content to take the check down when nothing is open. Nix is not forcing things, and that is something that his coach Sean Payton appreciates.
Still, for all the success of Nix, this team wouldn’t be where it was without their defense.
The Broncos are fifth in the league in rushing yards allowed, only giving up an average of 98.6 yards per game. They are tied for first in points allowed in the NFL with their opponent tonight, the Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams only average 17.6 points per game allowed. This matchup will present strength on strength. The Chargers love to run the ball on offense and the Broncos have one of the best rushing defenses. Who gets the better of this battle will probably determine the winner.
Harbaugh’s Touch
The Los Angeles Chargers have made a coaching change with Jim Harbaugh and now they are finally winning the close games that they used to lose. However, some of the flaws in this team were exposed in last Sunday’s 40-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for four touchdown passes and the Chargers were not able to get a stop in the second half.
The Chargers are an old-school team that is built on a strong defense and run-first philosophy. When either of these facets abandons them, they can be vulnerable.
Although the Chargers have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Justin Herbert, they do not have very many explosive skill position players around Herbert. This means that the Chargers need to be methodical on almost every drive. The lack of explosive plays could be the Chargers’ undoing this season.
Key Matchup: Charger Secondary vs. Broncos Wide Receivers
As mentioned earlier, the strength of the Broncos’ run defense will be put to the test against the Chargers’ strong running game. However, the game will be decided on whether or not the Broncos can duplicate the Buccaneer’s explosive offensive attack through the air.
This game will be a great opportunity for Broncos’ rookie quarterback Bo Nix to prove that he can be a dynamic high-flying player and not just play within the system.
The Chargers’ secondary is vulnerable as shown last week, and if the Broncos are able to match the output that the Buccaneers were able to achieve against this weakened Chargers pass defense, the Broncos will run away with this game. If the Chargers secondary can rebound and look better in pass defense, we will see a close, tightly contested battle.
The Pick
This is a tough game to call because although the Broncos do come into this game with much better results over the last four games, their level of competition has been markedly inferior.
And while the Chargers have been losing, they’ve been doing so against the best teams in the league. So while simply looking at the records it would seem that the Broncos are an easy pick because they’ve been winning, but the strength of the schedule does need to be taken into account.
Even downgrading the Broncos a bit for their lack of quality wins, I still like taking the points in this division matchup. As of right now, the Broncos are a more balanced team with better offensive weapons. Both teams play a hard-nosed defense and I also think the game will go under, making the three points even more valuable.
These two teams have gone under nine of the last 10 times they faced. Take the points and take the under.
NFL Pick: Denver Broncos + 3 (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Broncos/Chargers Under 42.5 (-110) at Bet365
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