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NCAA Basketball Computer Picks for December 7: Colorado to Cover at Home

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Julian Hammond Colorado Buffaloes v Michigan State Spartans
Julian Hammond III #3 of the Colorado Buffaloes holds up three fingers after draining a three point shot against the Michigan State Spartans. Darryl Oumi/Getty Images/AFP

It’s Saturday! You know what that means! We’ve got a massive slate in college basketball tonight. After surfing through many games via the AI Model, I’ve found some value I’m ready to share for tonight’s college basketball action. Let’s get to it!

Picks Summary


La Salle Explorers vs. Saint Joseph’s Hawks

Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Wells Fargo Center


The AI Model believes Saint Joseph’s will cover a 6.5-point spread with a seven-point win at home. Saint Joseph’s is expected to win by seven points but is -6.5 at Caesars.

La Salle Is Struggling Inside The Arc

The La Salle Explorers have only shot 48.2% from inside the arc this season. It’s hard to win games when doing that.

In addition to missing shots inside the arc, the Explorers have also struggled to get to the foul line. They’ll likely struggle to get there against a Saint Joseph’s defense that has done well keeping teams off the line this season.

Saint Joseph’s has also limited teams to 47.3% from inside the arc. So, these two categories favor Saint Joseph’s on defense.

Fewer Turnovers Expected For Saint Joseph’s

La Salle has earned just 16.7% of turnovers per game this season. That’s going to allow Saint Joseph’s to get a lot of shots off.

While the Hawks haven’t been elite from the field, La Salle has allowed opponents to hit 52.4% from inside the arc. The Hawks certainly have the advantage inside and could easily shoot better from downtown.

Ride with Saint Joseph’s in tonight’s matchup.

NCAAB Pick: Saint Joseph’s -6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Colorado State Rams vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at CU Events Center


The AI Model thinks Colorado will escape Colorado State by three points in this in-state rivalry. The Buffaloes are currently -2.5 against the spread and have the value, with the expected win by three.

The Three-Point Shot Favors Colorado

The Colorado Buffaloes have nailed 40.1% from downtown. They’re not taking threes at a wild rate but have taken enough threes for it to matter.

Ultimately, Colorado State has watched teams hit 35.8% from three. This is where the Buffaloes will need to take advantage, especially at home.

Meanwhile, Colorado State has only hit 31.3% from downtown. Colorado has defended the three well, holding teams to 30.8% from three. That’s a major difference heading into this game.

The Glass Is Another Factor

Rebounding will be another key factor in this game. After all, Colorado State has earned only 24.6% of offensive rebounds per game, while Colorado has grabbed 29.5% of offensive rebounds. While it doesn’t seem like a significant difference, it is when discussing a 2.5-point spread.

Every extra shot attempt and bucket counts. Take Colorado at -2.5.

NCAAB Pick: Colorado -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook


Indiana State Sycamores vs. Missouri State Bears

Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Great Southern Bank Arena


The AI Model suggests Missouri State -3.5 as one of the best players. The model has the Bears earning a four-point win, but you can get Missouri State at -3.5 at Bet365.

Too Many Turnovers, Indiana State!

The Indiana State Sycamores are shooting the ball well from the field. However, the team has added 21.2% of turnovers per game, only 26.5% of offensive rebounds, and a low free-throw rate.

Indiana State has hit 37.5% from three and 58.9% from inside the arc. But the moment this team starts struggling from the field, they’ll struggle to win games. They’re not doing any of the little things well right now.

Missouri State’s Aggressiveness

The Missouri State Bears have been much more selective in shooting threes. They’ve hit 38.9% from downtown but haven’t taken many of them.

That said, the Bears have had more success on the offensive glass and are aggressive around the paint area.

This will allow them more foul shots and probably more rebounds overall.

Let’s take Missouri State at -3.5 at home in tonight’s showdown.

NCAAB Pick: Missouri State -3.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

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