While only one ranked team is playing tonight, some fantastic games are still on the college basketball slate. With that, I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets. Here’s what it came up with, as always with the best NCAAB odds available at top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Valparaiso +10.5 (-110) at Bet365
- UC Davis -2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- San Francisco -8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Drake Bulldogs vs. Valparaiso Beacons
Thursday, December 05, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Athletics-Recreation Center
The AI Model believes Valparaiso will only lose to Drake by ten points. As 10.5-point underdogs at Bet365, backing Valpo is the way to go.
Can Drake Sustain Success?
The Drake Bulldogs have a roster filled with former D2 players who are overachieving to start the season.
While it could last, the turnovers have been a problem. Drake has turned the ball over 22.8% of the time, which is 353rd in college basketball.
The Bulldogs have hit 33.3% from deep and 55.7% from inside the arc. But to be more consistent, the turnovers can’t get as high as they’ve been.
Valparaiso Can Be More Discplined
Drake is good at adding turnovers themselves. The Bulldogs are also elite at defending the three and limiting second-chance points.
However, Drake has allowed teams to shoot 52.7% from inside the arc and rank 306th in defensive FTA/FGA. That’s not ideal, especially since Valparaiso has been getting to the foul line at a high rate this season.
If the Beacons can limit turnovers as they’ve done and have more success inside the arc while getting to the foul line, Valpo can at least cover the spread of 10.5 points.
Let’s roll with the Beacons at +10.5.
NCAAB Pick: Valparaiso +10.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Davis Aggies
Thursday, December 05, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Center
The AI Model thinks UC Davis will add an 81-77 win over Cal Poly at home. You can find UC Davis at just -2 against the spread at Caesars.
Cal Poly Is Turnover Prone
Right off the bat, this game won’t be the most enjoyable basketball game. Both teams make a lot of mistakes. There should also be a lot of fouls in this game and poor defense all around.
That said, Cal Poly is good at making shots. It’s just sometimes hard for them to get shots up. Cal Poly has turned the ball over 21.1% of the time and has added just 24.8% of offensive rebounds. The Mustangs don’t even get to the foul line much this year.
So, while Cal Poly shoots well, it doesn’t matter when they waste possessions away.
UC Davis Can Capitalize At The Line
The UC Davis Aggies haven’t shot nearly as well as Cal Poly. However, the Aggies are more aggressive and should get to the foul line more often.
That’s ideal, especially since UC Davis has nailed 74.4% from the foul line this season.
It’s also likely that UC Davis will turn the ball over fewer times, with Cal Poly earning only 17.7% of turnovers. Consider UC Davis at -2 tonight.
NCAAB Pick: UC Davis -2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Saint Louis Billikens vs. San Francisco Dons
Thursday, December 05, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at The Sobrato Center
The AI Model suggests San Francisco will add an 11-point win over Saint Louis at home. With San Francisco currently at -8, the Dons have some value against the spread.
Struggling On The Glass!
The Saint Louis Billikens have added a 56.2% effective field goal percentage, shooting 36.4% from three and 57.6% from two. These are good rates.
However, San Francisco has limited teams to 32.2% from three and 43% from inside the arc. If Saint Louis misses a lot of shots, it will be unable to capitalize on second chances.
After all, Saint Louis has added just 25.4% of offensive rebounds per game this season. That ranks 294th in college basketball.
I’d like to think San Francisco will hold Saint Louis to a worse shooting percentage.
What About To The Billikens Defense?
Saint Louis has allowed 35.2% from deep this season. Additionally, the Billikens have only earned 14.3% of turnovers and blocked only 4.7% of shots.
Beyond that, Saint Louis has earned just 7.6% of steals. This is not an aggressive offense.
Ultimately, San Francisco has knocked down 34.6% from deep and 59.3% from inside the arc. The Dons are much more consistent from the field, and it’ll be shown tonight. Let’s take San Francisco at -8 using the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: San Francisco -8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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