There is not a lot of love between in-state rivals Texas and Texas A&M.
But bettors should love this matchup, so let’s dive into the current betting odds at top sportsbooks and find our top pick for this game.
NCAAF Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Kyle Field
The Angle: Time Matters
When deciding whether the “over” or the “under” will hit for a given game, we are talking about how many points will be scored in 60 minutes.
Because time matters, we want more time to elapse without points being scored. The relationship between time elapsing and points being scored depends on what types of plays teams run and what their outcome is.
If we expect teams to achieve big plays and score quickly, then we should play the “over.” However, if we expect teams to have to grind out long drives that are difficult to sustain, then we should bet the “under.”
I like the “under” in this game because I expect Texas to have to rely on its short-passing game and Texas A&M to have to rely on its running game.
If they do so at all, both teams will move forward by mustering a few yards at a time. They will have to take a lot of time off the game clock just in order to approach the end zone.
Is Quinn Ewers Conservative?
Folks wonder why Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has produced such a low YPC (yards per completion) average in both of Texas’ last two games.
Two games ago, against Arkansas’ terrible secondary that Ole Miss had scored over 60 points against, Ewers averaged six YPC. Last week, against Kentucky with its high-ranking pass rush, Ewers averaged 6.2 YPC. He still attempted over 30 passes in both games, but he failed to reach 200 passing yards in either one because his pass completions went for such short gains.
Ewers can afford to be conservative because Texas has a great defense — the Longhorns are one of two teams to allow fewer than 250 yards per game. Because Ewers can trust his defense to limit the opposing offense, he knows that he doesn’t have to do too much on offense. He doesn’t have to play the hero and make big plays.
But it’s also the case that defenses are figuring out how to limit Ewers. Georgia put on a masterful defensive display when it held Texas to 15 points. The Bulldogs were physical on defense, mauling Texas’ offensive line and using pressure to rattle Ewers.
Most recently, Arkansas deployed three safeties in order to eradicate Ewers’ vertical passing ability. As Ole Miss’ quarterback can likewise confirm, Kentucky is tough for quarterbacks because of its pass rush.
So, Ewers can be conservative, but he also has demonstrable limitations that defenses are keying in on, as evident in his ongoing tendency to pass for fewer than 200 yards per game.
Under Pressure
Texas A&M is a characteristically physical team, as you would expect from SEC teams in general. One way in which the Aggies like to make use of their physicality is by blitzing. The Aggies are known to blitz a lot.
Ewers will be in a uniquely bad position to handle Texas A&M’s blitz because of the ankle sprain that he sustained last week and that left him hobbled.
While Ewers should play, his mobility could very well be impacted to a significant extent, which matters because quarterbacks need to be mobile especially when they are dealing with a heavy pass rush.
The outlook for Texas A&M’s pass rush, which ranks in the upper half in sack rate, justifies the expectation that Ewers will struggle to amend his ongoing tendency to throw for few yards and to suffer a low YPC rate. This being the case, the outlook for Texas’ offense as a whole must be very low because stopping the run is Texas A&M’s strength.
The Aggies have the 28th-best run defense, and they are even stronger at home, where they have a notoriously great home-field advantage.
At home, the Aggies allow 46 fewer rushing yards than they do on the road. They allow 100.2 rushing yards at home. To put this number in perspective, only seven teams allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game.
Texas A&M Will Need to Run
Texas A&M will not be able to rely on its pass attack at all. The Aggies have made a quarterback change because they lack a reliable passer.
This is a problem against a Texas team that is stacked with well-reputed cornerbacks. These cornerbacks help the Longhorns own the second-best pass defense. Texas is one of two teams to allow fewer than 150 passing yards per game.
Marcel Reed, who has been starting for the Aggies, is best when he runs the ball. Partly due to Reed, they run the ball with the 21st-highest frequency.
This is a physical offense that executes its blocks and, overall, runs especially well at home, where the Aggies average over 30 rushing yards more than they do on the road.
While the Aggies will be one-dimensional on offense, they won’t be too easy for Texas’ defense to stop, especially since, as evident in its near-loss at Vanderbilt, Texas struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks.
So, the Aggies will run the clock by sustaining drives, but their one-dimensionality still caps their scoring ceiling significantly.
Takeaway
This will be a low-scoring game in which, under pressure and limited in his mobility, Ewers focuses on short passes while he won’t be able to count on support from his ground attack.
On the other side, Texas A&M will be focusing on running the ball, which means that the clock will always be running when it has possession.
Texas’ elite pass defense and Texas A&M’s abilities to achieve pressure, especially via the blitz, and to stop the run will be key factors for each defense’s success.
NCAAF Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) at Bet365
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