We’re headed to Week 11 of the NFL season. I checked in with the AI Model and added three of its favorite bets for the weekend.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more NFL betting advice. Today, we have picks for the Packers vs. Bears and Vikings vs. Titans games.
Picks Summary
- Colts +3.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Falcons-Saints Under 44 (-110) at Bet365
- Bills (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
The AI Model thinks the Colts will only lose to the Jets by two points on the road. However, you can get the Colts at +3.5 at Bet365. The Jets have become a lost cause, which is a perfect reason to back the underdog in this one.
The Blame-Game Ain’t It
The Jets lost to the Cardinals last week by 25 points, but many players played the blame game instead of owning up to their mistakes. Aaron Rodgers and Sauce Gardner are two players who aren’t holding themselves accountable.
Once the Jets fired Robert Saleh, the entire team shut down. At 3-7, there’s no coming back from that loss against Arizona. Not even at home.
Joe Flacco’s Revenge Game
The Indianapolis Colts have lost three straight games. Since benching Anthony Richardson, the Colts have struggled to perform well.
But at 4-6, they’re still quietly in the playoff race in the AFC. They made the move with Joe Flacco to potentially make the playoffs.
The defense just needs to play a little bit better, and everything will be right. That said, against the Jets, it won’t be hard for the defense to step up. Almost every team has done that against the Jets.
Take the Colts at +3.5. They could potentially win outright.
NFL Pick: Colts +3.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High
The Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos are expected to score 43 points in Sunday’s game. However, the total is listed at 44 via Bet365. The Under looks like the play in this one.
Atlanta’s Inconsistent Offense Continues
The Atlanta Falcons have had games with 500+ passing yards. They’ve also had games like last week when they dropped just 17 points on a Saints team coming off a loss to the Panthers.
The same Saints team fired its head coach in the game before. Yet, the Falcons couldn’t find enough offense to overcome the Saints.
Atlanta has averaged 23.80 points per game and earned over 250 yards in the air. But that will likely drop against a Broncos defense that has allowed just 192.2 yards in the air per game.
This Denver defense was dominant against Patrick Mahomes and almost won the Broncos their game last week.
Atlanta’s Defense Has Improved
The Falcons aren’t just a good offense. The defense has done its part over the last few weeks. Atlanta allowed only 20 points to the Saints last week and only 21 to the Cowboys in the previous week.
That’s the sweet spot. If the Falcons can keep the Broncos to no more than 20 points, there’s a good chance they’ll win and still hit the Under.
Let’s grab the Under 44 in this game. Denver plays good complementary football.
NFL Pick: Under 44 (-110) at Bet365
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Our AI Model suggests the Buffalo Bills will take care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs, 23-21. You can get the Bills at -135 via Caesars. With Kansas City having so many close calls this season, the Bills are among the few teams that can finish the job.
The Chiefs Will Eventually Fall
The Kansas City Chiefs added another win after a blocked field goal attempt against the Broncos in the final seconds.
That pushed the Chiefs to 9-0 on the season. However, Kansas City has won many tight, close games that have gone their way. Eventually, they’ll lose. A road game against the Bills certainly won’t be easy.
The Chiefs have won three consecutive games by one possession. They even needed overtime against a banged-up Buccaneers team.
That said, the Chiefs are also banged up. But that’s also why they’re not nearly as elite as in years past.
Don’t Sleep On The Bills
For one, the Buffalo fanbase is the best in the NFL. They’ll be loud and become a factor in this game.
Secondly, the offense has scored 29 points per game, about a touchdown more than the Chiefs per game this season. Buffalo has ultimately added nearly identical yards in the air and on the ground per game. However, Buffalo is finishing drives more often.
That’ll be the difference in this game. Take the Bills at -135 at home.
NFL Pick: Bills (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.