I hit my Same Game Parlays for both Thursday Night Football (+600) and Sunday Night Football (+642) in Week 8. Now let’s keep the momentum rolling and cash a Monday Night Football SGP. Week 9 of the NFL season wraps up with a showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Bucs have slumped to .500 on the heels of a hot start, while the Chiefs are the last undefeated team in the league.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Buccaneers vs Chiefs predictions.
Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
Travis Kelce to score a touchdown (+115)
Baker Mayfield to record 250+ passing yards (+116)
Parlay odds: +750
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce finding the endzone would obviously work well with a win and cover by the Chiefs. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield to rack up his fair share of passing yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why K.C. can’t get the job done. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
In their quest to win 3 straight Super Bowls, the Chiefs have somehow found a way to start 7-0. Although there have been some very close calls, they have won each of their last 4 games by at least a touchdown. Kelce is heating up and Kareem Hunt has done a nice job of stabilizing the running-back position in the absence of Isiah Pacheco. Of course, the biggest reasons for the Chiefs’ success are an outstanding defense and Patrick Mahomes under center. Those factors simply aren’t going away. Kansas City ranks in the top 5 in points, yards, yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per pass allowed. Mahomes doesn’t have to be great for this team to keep winning. Now the Chiefs are facing a Tampa Bay squad that is missing wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs just aren’t the same with those 2 players. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games and another setback is almost certainly incoming.
Travis Kelce to score a touchdown (+115)
Here comes Kelce! Following an alarmingly slow start to the year, the star tight end has heated up. He has gotten at least 9 targets in 4 consecutive contests and has made 30 receptions during this stretch. Last weekend he had 10 catches on 12 targets for 90 yards and 1 touchdown during a win over the Las Vegas Raiders. As for Tampa Bay’s defense, it is #29 in the NFL against the pass and has surrendered the fifth-most passing touchdowns (15). This is a great opportunity to Kelce to put up more big numbers.
Baker Mayfield to record 250+ passing yards (+116)
Even without Evans and Godwin, Mayfield can be expected to post considerable statistics on sheer volume alone. The Bucs will probably be playing from behind the entire way, which means they will have to air it out early and often. That’s why this prop really doesn’t conflict at all with Kansas City prevailing by double-digits. In the first game following the injuries last weekend, Tampa Bay got thumped at home by the Atlanta Falcons and Mayfield still threw for 330 yards. Cade Otton went for 81 yards on 9 receptions, while running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White picked up the slack in the passing game with a combined 12 catches for 78 yards. The Chiefs are incredible against the run (No. 2 in the league at 82.3 yards per game), giving Mayfield all the more reason to hit the airwaves.