The New York Yankees are headed to Los Angeles for Game 1 of the 2024 MLB World Series.
This is the matchup the MLB wanted all along. We get Shohei Ohtani against Aaron Judge. After putting up massive numbers throughout the year, these two will likely win the MVP in their respective leagues.
For now, the Dodgers have the advantage. Los Angeles will get four home games if seven are necessary. The sportsbooks also believe the Dodgers have a slightly higher chance of winning, per the World Series odds.
Our AI Model also believes the Dodgers will win the World Series. For Game 1, Los Angeles earned a 5-4.1 victory at home to start the World Series. With Caesars currently sitting with a -130 pricetag on the Dodgers, Los Angeles is the way to go in Game 1.
When looking at the total, the AI Model projects a combined score of 9.1 runs. However, Caesars is carrying an 8.5, meaning the Over is another valuable play for this game.
Picks Summary
- Dodgers ML (-130)
- Over 8.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, October 25, 2024 – 8:08 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
What To Expect From Jack Flaherty
The Los Angeles Dodgers will roll with Jack Flaherty tonight. The right-hander has allowed a .260 ISO and wOBA of .368 to his last 88 batters. He’s also struck out below 15% of batters and has walked 11.4%.
He’s been way worse against righties, but overall, he has allowed 53.1% of hard contact and has just 8.3% of swinging strikes.
Flaherty had a really good game against the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS. But he struggled in his second outing against New York and has lower velocity.
However, the extra days of rest could help him regroup. After all, he’s struck out 28.2% of batters this season and has limited opponents to a .298 wOBA this year.
That said, he’ll take on a Yankees lineup that has hit a .205 ISO and wOBA of .347 against righties in the last 30 days. New York’s big hitters include Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. Those three have a lot of power potential against Flaherty, especially Judge and Stanton.
However, the bottom portion of the lineup has struggled to do much of anything throughout the postseason. If this continues, the Yankees will likely be trailing in multiple games. The Dodgers have a bunch of hitters at the bottom of the lineup who produce way more. That could be the difference.
Gerrit Cole Won’t Pitch More Than Five Innings
The Yankees will ride with Gerrit Cole. The righty has allowed a .047 ISO and wOBA of .264 to his last 95 batters. But he’s mostly faced left-handed batters.
Of those 95 batters faced, Cole has only taken on 38 righties. Those 38 righties have struck out no times and have hit a .354 wOBA with more fly balls and line drives than ground balls induced.
Cole has added just 7.6% of swinging strikes and has allowed 56.3% of hard contact. He couldn’t get through five innings in his last start against the Guardians.
The Guardians don’t have nearly as good of a lineup as the Dodgers. Los Angeles has hit a .189 ISO and wOBA of .349 with 17.7% of strikeouts and 11% of walks against righties over the last 30 days.
Los Angeles has six threats in the lineup against righties, who have all hit a high ISO and wOBA against righties over the last 30 days.
Cole’s pitch count should rise pretty quickly, and there’s a small chance that manager Aaron Boone will allow Cole to pitch to this Dodgers order a third time around.
The Picks
The Dodgers and Yankees have elite lineups against pitchers who have struggled. The Over already makes sense in this game.
The difference should be that Los Angeles’ 6-7-8-9 hitters do much more damage than New York’s.
For example, Tommy Edman won the NLCS MVP for the Dodgers over stars like Ohtani and Betts. There’s no easy out in the Los Angeles lineup. But there are in New York’s.
Let’s take the Dodgers at -130 and the Over 8.5 in Game 1 of the World Series. You can even add them together in a same-game parlay for a bigger payout!
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.